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Latin America
Europe FX
All foreign currencies but the Aussie encountered some weakness in the Far East after most foreign currencies ended lower on Wednesday. There is no change in the big political picture of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations, so the markets remain vulnerable to leaks, rumors and personal guesses. Most Asian stock markets are lower.
The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways with downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The overbought December euro slipped further in Asia after peaking at a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday. It should see additional mild weakness for at least half a day. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro formed a bullish reversal on November 13. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2945.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3130. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Japanese yen is extending losses in Asia after falling on Wednesday. It had been recovering from a 7 ½-month low around Thanksgiving. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2074. Further support is at 1.2020.
Initial resistance is at 1.2165. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2273.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The December pound consolidated in Asia after slipping on Wednesday and reaching a one-month high on Tuesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6060. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.6021. Distant support is at 1.5890.
Initial resistance is at 1.6130. A medium-term peak is at 1.6173. A significant peak is at 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Swiss franc is consolidating further. The franc had marked a five-week high around Thanksgiving. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0727. Further support is at 1.0645. Distant support is at 1.0580.
A pivot high is at 1.0837. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0861.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Canadian dollar is marking time in Asia after reaching an eight-day high on Wednesday. It remains around the 55-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0040. Further support is at .9936.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0118. Further resistance is at 1.0155 and 1.0230.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 29
The December Australian dollar is consolidating in Asia after edging lower on Wednesday and advancing to a near three-month high on Tuesday. The Aussie is testing the top of a symmetrical triangle. The latest leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
A medium-term top is at 1.0475. A significant peak is at 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0401 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0289.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways with downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November from 5.4% in October.
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter
- Eurozone: The ECB interest rate decision
- Germany: Factory orders for October
- France: ILO unemployment for the third quarter
- Switzerland: Consumer Price Index for November
- UK: Goods Trade Balance for October
- UK: Global trade balance for August
- UK: BoE asset purchase facility / interest rate decision
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The overbought December euro slipped further in Asia after peaking at a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday. It should see additional mild weakness for at least half a day. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro formed a bullish reversal on November 13. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2945.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3130. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Japanese yen is extending losses in Asia after falling on Wednesday. It had been recovering from a 7 ½-month low around Thanksgiving. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2074. Further support is at 1.2020.
Initial resistance is at 1.2165. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2273.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The December pound consolidated in Asia after slipping on Wednesday and reaching a one-month high on Tuesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6060. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.6021. Distant support is at 1.5890.
Initial resistance is at 1.6130. A medium-term peak is at 1.6173. A significant peak is at 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Swiss franc is consolidating further. The franc had marked a five-week high around Thanksgiving. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0727. Further support is at 1.0645. Distant support is at 1.0580.
A pivot high is at 1.0837. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0861.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Canadian dollar is marking time in Asia after reaching an eight-day high on Wednesday. It remains around the 55-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0040. Further support is at .9936.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0118. Further resistance is at 1.0155 and 1.0230.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 29
The December Australian dollar is consolidating in Asia after edging lower on Wednesday and advancing to a near three-month high on Tuesday. The Aussie is testing the top of a symmetrical triangle. The latest leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
A medium-term top is at 1.0475. A significant peak is at 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0401 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0289.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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