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The appetite for risk was mixed on Wednesday. Most foreign currencies ended lower, with only the Aussie gaining on the day. There is no change in the big political picture of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations, so the markets remain vulnerable to leaks, rumors and personal guesses about the success. The US stock markets ended divergently on a day when Apple was hit hard. Gold, oil and silver also ended divergently.
The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The overbought December euro fell from a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday and should see additional mild weakness for at least half a day. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro formed a bullish reversal on November 13. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2934.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3130. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Japanese yen on Wednesday gave up the gains of the previous two days. It has been recovering from a 7 ½-month low around Thanksgiving. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2120. A pivot low is at 1.2074. Further support is at 1.2020.
Initial resistance is at 1.2240. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The December pound ended lower on Wednesday after rising for two days and reaching a one-month high on Tuesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6060. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.6013. Distant support is at 1.5890.
Initial resistance is at 1.6130. A medium-term peak is at 1.6173. A significant peak is at 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Swiss franc closed little changed for a second day on Wednesday. The franc had marked a five-week high around Thanksgiving. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0721. Further support is at 1.0645. Distant support is at 1.0580.
A pivot high is at 1.0837. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0861.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Canadian dollar closed off an eight-day high on Wednesday but remains around the 55-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0118. Further resistance is at 1.0155 and 1.0230.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0040. Further support is at .9936.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 29
The December Australian dollar ended a little lower on Wednesday after advancing to a near three-month high on Tuesday. The Aussie is testing the top of a symmetrical triangle. The latest leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
A medium-term top is at 1.0475. A significant peak is at 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0395 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0285.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The ISM's non-manufacturing index inched up to 54.7 in November from 54.2 in October.
- US: The ADP employment change fell to 118,000 in November from the downwardly revised 157,000 in October.
- US: Factory orders increased by 0.8% in October following a revised 4.5% increase in September.
- US: The final labor productivity for the third quarter was revised upward to 2.9% from the preliminary estimate for a 1.9% increase.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Trade balance for October
- Australia: Unemployment rate for November
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The overbought December euro fell from a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday and should see additional mild weakness for at least half a day. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro formed a bullish reversal on November 13. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2934.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3130. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since September 28
The oversold December Japanese yen on Wednesday gave up the gains of the previous two days. It has been recovering from a 7 ½-month low around Thanksgiving. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2120. A pivot low is at 1.2074. Further support is at 1.2020.
Initial resistance is at 1.2240. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 12
The December pound ended lower on Wednesday after rising for two days and reaching a one-month high on Tuesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6060. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.6013. Distant support is at 1.5890.
Initial resistance is at 1.6130. A medium-term peak is at 1.6173. A significant peak is at 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Swiss franc closed little changed for a second day on Wednesday. The franc had marked a five-week high around Thanksgiving. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0721. Further support is at 1.0645. Distant support is at 1.0580.
A pivot high is at 1.0837. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0861.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 12
The December Canadian dollar closed off an eight-day high on Wednesday but remains around the 55-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0118. Further resistance is at 1.0155 and 1.0230.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0040. Further support is at .9936.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 29
The December Australian dollar ended a little lower on Wednesday after advancing to a near three-month high on Tuesday. The Aussie is testing the top of a symmetrical triangle. The latest leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
A medium-term top is at 1.0475. A significant peak is at 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0395 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0285.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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