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Latin America
Europe FX
The appetite for risk soured in the Far East amid economic concerns and budding frictions between China and Japan. No one expects a conflict between the two Asian super powers, but all notice that China is starting to flex its military muscle. Traders also need more information following various rumors about the bailout of Spain and sporadic hopes for economic improvement in the US. The European and commodity currencies are declining and the yen advancing in the wake of the volatile, but inconclusive, trading on Friday. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes are falling.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December euro fell in an inside range in the Far East. It had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. It is no longer overbought but still trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2895 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2834.
Initial resistance is at 1.3060. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen is advancing for a third day and reached a nine-day high. It is hovering above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2850. The next resistance level is 1.2880.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2772. Further support is at 1.2710 and 1.2630.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound edged lower after spiking to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. The pound had bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6160. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6055.
Initial resistance is at 1.6245. The top of the uptrend is 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December Swiss franc fell to a ten-day low after making no progress on Friday. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The franc is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0685. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at 1.0628.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0755. A pivot high is at 1.0838.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar slipped in Asia after sinking to a near two-week low on Thursday. It had reached a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0176. Further support is at 1.0060.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0359.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The December Australian dollar declined in Asia after falling in three days past last week. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0267. Further support is at 1.0195.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0380. The next cap is 1.0440. A pivot high is at 1.0537.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Japan: The BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes showed that Japan's economy is picking up gradually.
- Australia: HIA new home sales for August
Today's economic calendar
- Germany: Import price index for August
- Germany: IFO survey of business climate for September
- Italy: Trade balance for August
- UK:: Nationwide housing prices for August
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December euro fell in an inside range in the Far East. It had peaked near a four-month high on September 17. It is no longer overbought but still trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2895 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2834.
Initial resistance is at 1.3060. A pivot high is at 1.3183.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen is advancing for a third day and reached a nine-day high. It is hovering above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2850. The next resistance level is 1.2880.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2772. Further support is at 1.2710 and 1.2630.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound edged lower after spiking to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. The pound had bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6160. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6055.
Initial resistance is at 1.6245. The top of the uptrend is 1.6304.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December Swiss franc fell to a ten-day low after making no progress on Friday. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The franc is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0685. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at 1.0628.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0755. A pivot high is at 1.0838.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar slipped in Asia after sinking to a near two-week low on Thursday. It had reached a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0176. Further support is at 1.0060.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0359.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The December Australian dollar declined in Asia after falling in three days past last week. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0267. Further support is at 1.0195.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0380. The next cap is 1.0440. A pivot high is at 1.0537.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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