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The appetite for risk surged in the US on Thursday after The Federal Reserve met the market expectations of more stimulus for the faltering economy. The Fed will buy $40 billion of mortgages per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market until the Fed is satisfied that economic conditions improve.
Given optimism that Germany can ratify the new permanent EBF and the US QE3, all foreign currencies surged in the US, reversing the expected losses encountered early by the European and commodity currencies. The US stock markets surged. Gold, oil and silver ended rallied as well.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro advanced in six of the past seven days and marked a new four-month high. It is obviously overbought and is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3010. Further resistance is at 1.3075. Distant resistance is at 1.3170.
Immediate support is at 1.2950. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2885. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.2646.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen rallied to a seven-month high on Thursday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Thursday's high is 1.2977. Further resistance is at 1.3105.
Initial support is at 1.2850. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2774.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound advanced in eight of the past nine days and climbed to a new high for the uptrend. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.6215. A pivot high is at 1.6276.
Immediate support is at 1.6110. The next floor is 1.6030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc reversed losses on Thursday after ending off a three-month high on Wednesday. The franc is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. It had marked a near two-month high on August 31 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0755. Further resistance is at 1.0880.
Immediate support is at 1.0645. The next floor is 1.0560. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at a distant 1.0501.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar exploded to a new high for the uptrend. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0400.
Initial support is at 1.0185. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.1028.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The December Australian dollar reversed early losses and plowed higher on Thursday, thus advancing in five of the past six days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model went long.
A pivot high is at 1.0493. Further resistance is at 1.0555.
Initial support is at 1.0415. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0297.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
Given optimism that Germany can ratify the new permanent EBF and the US QE3, all foreign currencies surged in the US, reversing the expected losses encountered early by the European and commodity currencies. The US stock markets surged. Gold, oil and silver ended rallied as well.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The initial jobless claims rose to 382,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000 (up to 370,000 from the 365,000 originally reported).
- US: The PPI surged 1.7% in August following a 0.3% increase in July. The core PPI edged up by 0.2% in August after rising by 0.4% in July.
- Canada: Capacity utilization rose to 81.0% in the second quarter from 80.5% in the first quarter.
- Canada: The new housing price index slowed to +0.1% in July from 0.2% in June.
Today's economic calendar
- Japan: Industrial production for July
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro advanced in six of the past seven days and marked a new four-month high. It is obviously overbought and is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3010. Further resistance is at 1.3075. Distant resistance is at 1.3170.
Immediate support is at 1.2950. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2885. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.2646.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen rallied to a seven-month high on Thursday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Thursday's high is 1.2977. Further resistance is at 1.3105.
Initial support is at 1.2850. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2774.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound advanced in eight of the past nine days and climbed to a new high for the uptrend. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.6215. A pivot high is at 1.6276.
Immediate support is at 1.6110. The next floor is 1.6030. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc reversed losses on Thursday after ending off a three-month high on Wednesday. The franc is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. It had marked a near two-month high on August 31 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0755. Further resistance is at 1.0880.
Immediate support is at 1.0645. The next floor is 1.0560. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at a distant 1.0501.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar exploded to a new high for the uptrend. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0400.
Initial support is at 1.0185. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.1028.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The December Australian dollar reversed early losses and plowed higher on Thursday, thus advancing in five of the past six days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model went long.
A pivot high is at 1.0493. Further resistance is at 1.0555.
Initial support is at 1.0415. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0297.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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