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Latin America
Europe FX
The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after most of the European and commodity currencies edged lower on Monday. The appetite for risk deteriorated on Monday on profit taking after three days of gains under the weight of slightly soft Chinese data and ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and a German constitutional court ruling on whether Germany may contribute to the Eurozone's rescue fund. This pullback should be temporary. The Asian stock markets slipped.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro marked time in Asia after slipping on Monday and marking a 2 1/2-month high on Friday. It is overbought. The euro is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2745. The next floor is 1.2615. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.2573.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2882. Further resistance is at 1.2955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen continues to consolidate after spiking to a five-week high and briefly piercing the top of a symmetrical triangle on Friday. It is supported by the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Friday's high is at 1.2829. A pivot high is at 1.2920.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2742 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.2676. The next resistance levels are 1.2800 and 1.2854.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The December pound is consolidating after nailing a 3 1/2-month high on Friday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5905. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5840.
Initial resistance is at 1.6050. Further resistance is at 1.6085 and 1.6135.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc is quiet after slipping on Monday and rallying to a two-month high on Friday. The franc is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. It had marked a near two-month high on August 31 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0515 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0458.
Initial resistance is at 1.0630. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0755.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The December Canadian dollar remains firm near a new high for the uptrend. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0145. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0097.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0230. Further resistance is at 1.0285.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The oversold December Australian dollar continues to swerve around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model went long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0215 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0152. A pivot low is at 1.0077.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0308. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- UK: The RICS housing price balance improved to -19 in August from -23 in July.
- Japan: BSI large manufacturing for the third quarter
- Japan: Machine tool orders for August
- Australia: National Australia Bank's business conditions for August
Today's economic calendar
- UK: Trade balance for July
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro marked time in Asia after slipping on Monday and marking a 2 1/2-month high on Friday. It is overbought. The euro is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2745. The next floor is 1.2615. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.2573.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2882. Further resistance is at 1.2955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen continues to consolidate after spiking to a five-week high and briefly piercing the top of a symmetrical triangle on Friday. It is supported by the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Friday's high is at 1.2829. A pivot high is at 1.2920.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2742 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.2676. The next resistance levels are 1.2800 and 1.2854.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The December pound is consolidating after nailing a 3 1/2-month high on Friday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5905. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5840.
Initial resistance is at 1.6050. Further resistance is at 1.6085 and 1.6135.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc is quiet after slipping on Monday and rallying to a two-month high on Friday. The franc is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. It had marked a near two-month high on August 31 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0515 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0458.
Initial resistance is at 1.0630. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0755.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The December Canadian dollar remains firm near a new high for the uptrend. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0145. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0097.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0230. Further resistance is at 1.0285.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The oversold December Australian dollar continues to swerve around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model went long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0215 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0152. A pivot low is at 1.0077.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0308. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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