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The appetite for risk reversed from weak to relatively strong for the European currencies and yen in the US on Wednesday after reports that the ECB will announce a new government bond buying program to stem the euro zone crisis. Details of the plan will be revealed by ECB President Draghi after Thursday's policy meeting. The commodity currencies fell on concern about the slowdown in the Chinese economy. The US indexes, gold, oil and silver made little progress.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December euro reversed early losses and closed just above the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It had marked a near two-month high on Friday. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2690. Further resistance is at 1.2835.
Immediate support is at 1.2540. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen ended a little higher after edging lower on Tuesday and rallying on Friday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2730. A pivot low is at 1.2565.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The December pound reversed early losses and rallied to a two-week high on Wednesday. It peaked at a three-month high on August 23. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A medium-term top is at 1.5907. Further resistance is at 1.5970.
Nearby support is at 1.5850. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5774. Distant support is at 1.5650.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc reversed from a two-week low and ended just below the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It had marked a near two-month high on Friday. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24 and has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0546. Further resistance is at 1.0606.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0405. Further support is at 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The December Canadian dollar fell on Wednesday after recent gains. The 21-day exponential moving average has provided ongoing support. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0052. The next floor is at 1.0010.
A pivot high is at 1.0136. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The December Australian dollar accelerated losses and fell to a six-week low on Wednesday. It is testing the support of the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and challenging the 100-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0077. Further support is at .9980.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0210 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0270.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The final productivity was upwardly revised to +2.2% in the second quarter from the preliminary estimate of +1.6%.
- Canada: The Bank of Canada left its interest rate at 1.0%, as widely expected.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Unemployment rate for August
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December euro reversed early losses and closed just above the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It had marked a near two-month high on Friday. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2690. Further resistance is at 1.2835.
Immediate support is at 1.2540. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen ended a little higher after edging lower on Tuesday and rallying on Friday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2730. A pivot low is at 1.2565.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The December pound reversed early losses and rallied to a two-week high on Wednesday. It peaked at a three-month high on August 23. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A medium-term top is at 1.5907. Further resistance is at 1.5970.
Nearby support is at 1.5850. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5774. Distant support is at 1.5650.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The December Swiss franc reversed from a two-week low and ended just below the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It had marked a near two-month high on Friday. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24 and has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0546. Further resistance is at 1.0606.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0405. Further support is at 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The December Canadian dollar fell on Wednesday after recent gains. The 21-day exponential moving average has provided ongoing support. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0052. The next floor is at 1.0010.
A pivot high is at 1.0136. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The December Australian dollar accelerated losses and fell to a six-week low on Wednesday. It is testing the support of the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and challenging the 100-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0077. Further support is at .9980.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0210 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0270.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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