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Asia FX
The appetite for risk is decent following the long US weekend on hopes that the Federal Reserve is moving toward open-ended bond purchases. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that the US economy is "far from satisfactory" and his colleagues are moving toward this policy just in time for the presidential elections.
All foreign currencies but the Aussie open up after advancing on Friday. The Aussie got hurt again by news that the Chinese economy, the giant user of Australian commodities, is slowing further. The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro opens around the 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average after advancing to a near two-month high on Friday. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2640. Further resistance is at 1.2705.
Immediate support is at 1.2525. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2460.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The September Japanese yen opens firmly after rallying on Friday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2716. A pivot low is at 1.2556.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound opens firmly after surging on Friday. It peaked at a three-month high on August 23. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A medium-term top is at 1.5912. Further resistance is at 1.5970.
Nearby support is at 1.5850. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5766. Distant support is at 1.5650.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc opens near a two-month high in Asia after advancing on Friday. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24 and has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0527. Further resistance is at 1.0590.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0377. Further support is at 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar opens a little higher after rallying on Friday. The 21-day exponential moving average still supports. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.0168. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0070. The next floor is at 1.0010.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The September Australian dollar opens at a six-week low under the threat of Chinese economic slowdown. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and challenging the 100-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0220. Further support is at 1.0125.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0373 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0373.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
All foreign currencies but the Aussie open up after advancing on Friday. The Aussie got hurt again by news that the Chinese economy, the giant user of Australian commodities, is slowing further. The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The factory orders surged 2.8% in July following a decline of 0.5% in June.
- US: The ISM Chicago's business barometer fell to 53.0 in August from 53.7 in July.
- US: The Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan report showed that the consumer sentiment index for August was upwardly revised to 74.3 from the mid-month reading of 73.6.
- Canada: The GDP rose 0.2% in the second quarter from 0.1% in the first quarter.
- China: The NBS manufacturing PMI declined to 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July.
- China: The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 in August from 55.6 in July.
- Australia: Retail sales fell 0.8 percent in July after rising a revised 1.2% in June.
- Australia: The AIG-PwC Performance of Manufacturing Index rose by 5 points to 45.3 in August.
- Eurozone: The manufacturing PMI rose to 45.1 in August from 44 in July.
- Switzerland: Retail sales turnover rose 3.2% on an annual basis in July, slightly slower than the 3.3% growth in June.
- UK: The Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Manager's Index rose to 49.5 in August from 45.2 in July.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Current account balance for the second quarter
- Australia: RBA to leave interest rates at 3.5%
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro opens around the 100-day exponentially smoothed moving average after advancing to a near two-month high on Friday. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2640. Further resistance is at 1.2705.
Immediate support is at 1.2525. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2460.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The September Japanese yen opens firmly after rallying on Friday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2716. A pivot low is at 1.2556.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound opens firmly after surging on Friday. It peaked at a three-month high on August 23. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A medium-term top is at 1.5912. Further resistance is at 1.5970.
Nearby support is at 1.5850. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5766. Distant support is at 1.5650.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc opens near a two-month high in Asia after advancing on Friday. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24 and has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0527. Further resistance is at 1.0590.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0377. Further support is at 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar opens a little higher after rallying on Friday. The 21-day exponential moving average still supports. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.0168. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0070. The next floor is at 1.0010.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The September Australian dollar opens at a six-week low under the threat of Chinese economic slowdown. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and challenging the 100-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0220. Further support is at 1.0125.
The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0373 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0373.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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