By Nick Kalivas
Fri 07 Sep 2012 09:21:01 CT
The market is well on its way to discounting this morning's soft labor data. One of the numbers which sticks out in the deep detail is the number of people "not in the labor force, but want a job now". This is measure may be a good indication of underlying strength in the labor market. The unemployment rate inched lower to 8.1% in August, but much of the drop and pressure on the rate is a function of people leaving the labor force. The number of people not in the labor force that want a job rose 7.5% y/y in August and is up 2.45% y/y over the past 3 months. It rose 403,000 on a number basis in August. Consistent with this data, those Americans not in the labor force has risen 2.75 mln over the last year or 3.1% y/y. In order to provide some balance, household employment did rise 1.7% y/y and unemployment fall 9.9% y/y in August. The graphic below displays the trend in the not in the labor force and looking for a job category. Note the level surged in August. This data may be a good argument for more Fed action -- additional policy accommodation
. It could show the magnitude of frustration in the labor force and may be an important data point for the election. These voters could voice their opinion.
Chart watchers will be eyeing price action in the December T-bond contract around the 9/4 low of 150-30 and the 9/4 high of 151-29 for signs of strength. 149-30 (8/27 high) and 149-05 (yesterday's low) could be monitored on the downside for signs of weakness.
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