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Latin America
US FX
The financial markets are risk averse ahead of the US open after declining on Monday on profit taking from last week's gains. Late Monday, policymaker Luc Coene said that the ECB could cut its main interest rate, put its deposit rate into negative territory and offer banks a new round of ultra-cheap funding. The euro and the commodity currencies open lower, while the pound, franc and yen open flat. The Asian stock indexes declined. The European bourses are down the US stock markets are lower in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are also lower.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro opens a little lower in the US after slipping from a near a four-month high on Monday and advancing in seven of the past eight days. It is obviously overbought and is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3015. Further support is at 1.2950. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2891.
Initial resistance is at 1.3180. Further resistance is at 1.3250.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen opens flat around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average in the US after falling for two days and peaking at a seven-month high on Thursday. It is trading below both the 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages. The yen had put in at a five-week low on August 17.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2764. The next resistance levels are 1.2800 and 1.2850.
Initial support is at 1.2665. Further support is at 1.2565.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound opens flat in the US after advancing in ten of the past eleven days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.6268. Further resistance is at 1.6345.
Immediate support is at 1.6170. The next floor is 1.6070. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5978.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December Swiss franc opens unchanged in the US while still near a new high for the uptrend. The franc is testing its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0756. Further support is at 1.0645. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at a distant 1.0578.
Initial resistance is at 1.0840. Further resistance is at 1.0880 and 1.0965.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar opens under pressure in the US after falling on Monday and spiking to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0210. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0157.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0295. Friday's high is 1.0359. Further resistance is at 1.0400 and 1.0460.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The overbought December Australian dollar opens further down in the US after declining on Monday and marking a new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0321. Further support is at 1.0245 and 1.0175.
Initial resistance is at 1.0405. Friday's peak is 1.0537. Further resistance is at 1.0575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- China: House Price Index fell 1.4% in August after declining 1.5% in July.
- Australia: The RBA meeting's minutes showed that there is scope for policy to respond to any "significant deterioration" in growth outlook. Board members made particular note of sharp fall in some commodity prices, downside risks to global economy. Yet domestic economy seemed to be growing around trend, impact of past easing still working through.
- Germany: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose 7.3 to -18.2 in September.
- UK: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in August from 0.1% in July.
- UK: The ONS house price index rose % year-on-year in July, slower than 2.3% gain in June.
Today's economic calendar
- US: Current account for the second quarter
- US: Net Long-Term TIC flows /Total net TIC flows for July
- US: NAHB Housing Market Index for September
EUR – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December euro opens a little lower in the US after slipping from a near a four-month high on Monday and advancing in seven of the past eight days. It is obviously overbought and is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3015. Further support is at 1.2950. The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2891.
Initial resistance is at 1.3180. Further resistance is at 1.3250.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The December Japanese yen opens flat around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average in the US after falling for two days and peaking at a seven-month high on Thursday. It is trading below both the 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages. The yen had put in at a five-week low on August 17.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2764. The next resistance levels are 1.2800 and 1.2850.
Initial support is at 1.2665. Further support is at 1.2565.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – December
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The overbought December pound opens flat in the US after advancing in ten of the past eleven days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.6268. Further resistance is at 1.6345.
Immediate support is at 1.6170. The next floor is 1.6070. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5978.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – December
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The overbought December Swiss franc opens unchanged in the US while still near a new high for the uptrend. The franc is testing its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.0756. Further support is at 1.0645. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at a distant 1.0578.
Initial resistance is at 1.0840. Further resistance is at 1.0880 and 1.0965.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The overbought December Canadian dollar opens under pressure in the US after falling on Monday and spiking to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0210. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0157.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0295. Friday's high is 1.0359. Further resistance is at 1.0400 and 1.0460.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
Luca Model: Long since September 7
The overbought December Australian dollar opens further down in the US after declining on Monday and marking a new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0321. Further support is at 1.0245 and 1.0175.
Initial resistance is at 1.0405. Friday's peak is 1.0537. Further resistance is at 1.0575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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