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The appetite for risk was limited on Thursday ahead of the long weekend, the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting and following reports that Spain may delay its decision on seeking a bailout. The European currencies and the commodity currencies fell while yen made little progress. Volume remains light. The US stock declined. Gold, oil and silver ended lower as well.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro fell for a second day on Thursday. It had marked a 1 ½-month on August 23. The euro is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2432.
Initial resistance is at 1.2593. Further resistance is at 1.2705.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The September Japanese yen edged up after slipping on Wednesday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model went long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2673. Monday's low is 1.2556.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2780. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound tumbled on Thursday. It peaked at a three-month high on Thursday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5741. Further support is at 1.5650.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5875. A medium-term top is at 1.5912.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc ended a little lower on Thursday after edging lower on Wednesday. It had peaked at a 1 ½-month high on August 23. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0354. Further support is at 1.0315.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0486. Further resistance is at 1.0590.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar declined on Thursday after peaking at a four-month high on Tuesday, but found a floor from the 21-day exponential moving average. It's been trading in a channel rising since late July. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0055. The next floor is at 1.0010.
Nearby resistance is 1.0110. A pivot high is at 1.0168. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The September Australian dollar ended at a one-month low on Thursday. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0245. Further support is at 1.0125.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0395. The top of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: Initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly came in unchanged at 374,000 in the week ended August 25th, if only because the previous number was upwardly revised (as usual) from 372.000.
- US: The personal income rose by 0.3% in July, matching the increases seen in the two previous months. Personal spending increased by 0.4% in July after coming in roughly flat in June. Disposable personal income also increased by 0.3% in July.
- Canada: Current account deficit widened to $16.02 billion in the second quarter from q deficit of $10.15 billion in the first quarter.
Today's economic calendar
- UK: Gfk consumer confidence for August
- Japan: Nomura/ JMMA manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index for August
- Japan: Unemployment rate for July
- Japan: Overall household spending for July
- Japan: National Consumer Price Index for July
- Japan: Tokyo Consumer Price Index for August
- Japan: Industrial production for July
- Japan: Housing starts for July
- Australia: Private sector credit for July
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro fell for a second day on Thursday. It had marked a 1 ½-month on August 23. The euro is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2432.
Initial resistance is at 1.2593. Further resistance is at 1.2705.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since August 22
The September Japanese yen edged up after slipping on Wednesday. It remains supported by the 21-day exponential moving average on a closing basis. The yen remains in an inside range. It had bottomed at a five-week low on August 17. The yen is trading in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model went long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2673. Monday's low is 1.2556.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2780. The next resistance is at 1.2854.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound tumbled on Thursday. It peaked at a three-month high on Thursday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5741. Further support is at 1.5650.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5875. A medium-term top is at 1.5912.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc ended a little lower on Thursday after edging lower on Wednesday. It had peaked at a 1 ½-month high on August 23. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0354. Further support is at 1.0315.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0486. Further resistance is at 1.0590.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar declined on Thursday after peaking at a four-month high on Tuesday, but found a floor from the 21-day exponential moving average. It's been trading in a channel rising since late July. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0055. The next floor is at 1.0010.
Nearby resistance is 1.0110. A pivot high is at 1.0168. Further resistance is at 1.0205.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since August 27
The September Australian dollar ended at a one-month low on Thursday. The Aussie is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It's been trading a short-term channel declining since August 9. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0245. Further support is at 1.0125.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0395. The top of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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