Asia FX
The appetite for risk was arrested on Monday, after an alleged report that the European Central Bank could set an interest rate threshold for purchases of euro zone bonds proved to be erroneous. The European and commodity currencies ended little changed after sinking on Friday, while the yen reversed from a five-week low. The US stock markets ended little changed.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro ended little changed on Monday after falling on Friday. The euro is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2324. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen bounced off a five-week low on Monday after dropping for most of last week. The break below the resistance line rising since March suggests further weakness.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2640. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2695.
Monday's low is 1.2556. The next support is at 1.2515. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound ended little changed on Monday after marking a three-week high on Thursday and falling on Friday. The 200-day exponential moving average is capping. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high on July 27. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5739. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5653. Further support is at 1.5575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc consolidated around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0210. The next floor is 1.0110.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar made little progress on Monday after hitting a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It just broke the bottom of a rising wedge. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is 1.0135. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar edged higher on Monday after falling to at a 24-day low on Friday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0465. The next cap is 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
Initial support is at 1.0385. Further support is at 1.0350 and 1.0295.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- No data
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: RBA Meeting's minutes
- Japan: All Industry Activity Index for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro ended little changed on Monday after falling on Friday. The euro is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2324. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen bounced off a five-week low on Monday after dropping for most of last week. The break below the resistance line rising since March suggests further weakness.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2640. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2695.
Monday's low is 1.2556. The next support is at 1.2515. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound ended little changed on Monday after marking a three-week high on Thursday and falling on Friday. The 200-day exponential moving average is capping. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high on July 27. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5739. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5653. Further support is at 1.5575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc consolidated around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0210. The next floor is 1.0110.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar made little progress on Monday after hitting a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It just broke the bottom of a rising wedge. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is 1.0135. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar edged higher on Monday after falling to at a 24-day low on Friday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0465. The next cap is 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
Initial support is at 1.0385. Further support is at 1.0350 and 1.0295.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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