Europe FX
The appetite for risk was limited in the Far East. Greece's prime minister is expected to seek an extension for meeting his country's budgetary and reform commitments, a move unlikely to be answered positively by Germany. The foreign currencies remained under pressure in the Far East after sinking on Friday. The market needs fresh data.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways with downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro made little progress in the Far East after falling on Friday. The euro is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2323. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is falling further to a five-week low after dropping for most of last week. The break below the resistance line rising since March suggests further weakness.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2515. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next cap is 1.2640. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2691.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is slipping for a second day after marking a three-week high on Thursday. The 200-day exponential moving average is capping. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high on July 27. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5651. Further support is at 1.5575.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5739. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc was quiet in the Far East around the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0210. The next floor is 1.0110.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar was little changed in Asia after hitting a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It just broke the bottom of a rising wedge. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
Immediate resistance is 1.0135. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is quiet after falling to at a 24-day low on Friday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0385. Further support is at 1.0350 and 1.0295.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0465. The next cap is 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways with downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- China: The House Price Index fell 1.5% in July, the same as in June.
- UK: The average asking price for a house was down 2.4% in August following a 1.7% contraction in July.
- Japan: Leading economic index for June
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Construction output for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro made little progress in the Far East after falling on Friday. The euro is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2323. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is falling further to a five-week low after dropping for most of last week. The break below the resistance line rising since March suggests further weakness.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2515. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next cap is 1.2640. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2691.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is slipping for a second day after marking a three-week high on Thursday. The 200-day exponential moving average is capping. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high on July 27. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and a bottom at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5651. Further support is at 1.5575.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5739. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc was quiet in the Far East around the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0210. The next floor is 1.0110.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar was little changed in Asia after hitting a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It just broke the bottom of a rising wedge. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
Immediate resistance is 1.0135. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is quiet after falling to at a 24-day low on Friday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0385. Further support is at 1.0350 and 1.0295.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0465. The next cap is 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
-
- Idea Exchange is your direct link to the product managers, marketers, and the development teams who create cmegroup.com and will allow you to review functionality, participate in focus groups and provide feedback on upcoming Web initiatives
