Asia FX
The appetite for risk improved on Wednesday after German Chancellor Merkel supported ECB President Draghi's comments about defending the euro. This always makes for a nice catalyst in the short term, but talk remains cheap. The European and commodity currencies advanced, while the yen remains under pressure. The US stock markets advanced. Gold, oil and silver gained as well.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro had an outside day and closed at the high of the week. It is trading back above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2322. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen fell further and reached a five-week low after breaking the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on Wednesday. It found support from the 55-day exponential moving average and trimmed losses. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2595. Further support is at 1.2515.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2717. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound rose to a three-week high and ended just below the 100-day exponential moving average on Thursday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5772. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
Initial support is at 1.5695. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5644. Further support is at 1.5575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc closed at the high of the week and above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Immediate support is at 1.0250. The next floors are 1.0210 and 1.0110.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar rallied for a third day and hit a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is 1.0140. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is consolidating after bouncing off a near two-week low on Wednesday. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0418. Further support is at 1.0350.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: Housing starts fell 1.1% to an annual rate of 746,000 in July from the revised June estimate of 754,000. However, new building permits surged 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 812,000, the highest level since August of 2008, from 755,000.
- US: The initial jobless rose to 366,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 364,000 (from the 361,000 originally reported for the previous week).
- US: the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing improved to −7.1 in August from −12.9 in July.
- Canada: Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities contracted $7.89 billion in June from +$26.11 billion in May.
- Canada: Manufacturing shipments fell 0.4% in June from in 0.0% May.
Today's economic calendar
- No data
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro had an outside day and closed at the high of the week. It is trading back above the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2322. Further support is at 1.2245 and 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen fell further and reached a five-week low after breaking the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on Wednesday. It found support from the 55-day exponential moving average and trimmed losses. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2595. Further support is at 1.2515.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2717. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound rose to a three-week high and ended just below the 100-day exponential moving average on Thursday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5772. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5890.
Initial support is at 1.5695. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5644. Further support is at 1.5575.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc closed at the high of the week and above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0320. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Immediate support is at 1.0250. The next floors are 1.0210 and 1.0110.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar rallied for a third day and hit a 3 ½-month high on Thursday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is 1.0140. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0090. Further support is at 1.0050, 1.0010 and .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is consolidating after bouncing off a near two-week low on Wednesday. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0418. Further support is at 1.0350.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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