Europe FX
The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after the European currencies made little progress on Tuesday. The yen remains under pressure after falling this week. The Asian stock indexes are declining.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro marked time around the 21-day exponential moving average in the Far East after falling off a three-day high on Tuesday. It marked a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2265. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen remains soft after falling to a one-month low on Tuesday on cautiously rising appetite for risk. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2670. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2770. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is marking time after falling off a two-week high on Tuesday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5633. Further support is at 1.5575 and 1.5500.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5740. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is quiet after dropping off a three-day high to around the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
Initial resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar continues to make little progress after marking a new three-month high on Friday. A possible bearish reversal (karakasa) seems to be out of order. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0030. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
Monday's high is 1.0088. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is falling for a third day. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0407. Further support is at 1.0350.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0485. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped 2.5% in August after rising 3.7% in July.
- Australia: Wage Price Index rose to 3.7% in the second quarter from 3.6% in the first quarter.
Today's economic calendar
- UK: Bank of England Minutes
- UK: ILO Unemployment rate for August
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro marked time around the 21-day exponential moving average in the Far East after falling off a three-day high on Tuesday. It marked a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2265. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen remains soft after falling to a one-month low on Tuesday on cautiously rising appetite for risk. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2670. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2770. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is marking time after falling off a two-week high on Tuesday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5633. Further support is at 1.5575 and 1.5500.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5740. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is quiet after dropping off a three-day high to around the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
Initial resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar continues to make little progress after marking a new three-month high on Friday. A possible bearish reversal (karakasa) seems to be out of order. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0030. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
Monday's high is 1.0088. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is falling for a third day. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0407. Further support is at 1.0350.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0485. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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