Europe FX
The foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after ending divergently on Monday due to ongoing concern about the global slowdown. While the euro and franc benefited from the fleeting news of a decent auction of Italian debt, the other foreign currencies were hurt by worries about the slowdown of the Chinese and Japanese economies. The Asia stock indexes consolidated as well.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro was quiet in the Far East after being vaulted in Monday by a decent auction of Italian debt. It is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average after trimming losses from a one-week low on Friday. It marked a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2385. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2265. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is slipping further and surging on Friday. It has alternated up and down days for nine days. The yen exited from an inside range only on an intraday basis. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average continues to provide support. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2690. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound remains little changed after slipping off a two-week high on Monday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5716. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5629. Further support is at 1.5575, 1.5500 and 1.5456.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is marking time after ending higher ended around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is consolidating after edging lower on Monday and marking a new three-month high on Friday. A possible bearish reversal (karakasa) seems to be out of order. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0030. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
Friday's high is 1.0087. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar remains under pressure after falling for two days. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, marked a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0462. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at 1.0405.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Japan: An index measuring tertiary industry activity rose 0.1% in June following the 0.7% increase in May.
- Japan: Members of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy board feel that Japan's economy will return to a moderate recovery path, the minutes from its July 11-12 meeting revealed.
- Australia: National Australia Bank's Business conditions advanced to 4 in July from -3 in June.
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Industrial Production for June
- Eurozone: Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter
- Germany: Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter
- Germany: ZEW survey - current situation for August
- France: Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter
- France: Consumer Price Index for July
- France: Nonfarm Payrolls for the second quarter
- Switzerland: Producer and Import Prices for July
- UK: Consumer Price Index for July
- UK: DCLG House Price Index for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro was quiet in the Far East after being vaulted in Monday by a decent auction of Italian debt. It is trading above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average after trimming losses from a one-week low on Friday. It marked a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2385. Further resistance is at 1.2450 and 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2265. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is slipping further and surging on Friday. It has alternated up and down days for nine days. The yen exited from an inside range only on an intraday basis. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average continues to provide support. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2690. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound remains little changed after slipping off a two-week high on Monday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5716. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5629. Further support is at 1.5575, 1.5500 and 1.5456.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is marking time after ending higher ended around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is consolidating after edging lower on Monday and marking a new three-month high on Friday. A possible bearish reversal (karakasa) seems to be out of order. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0030. Further support is at .9915 and .9785.
Friday's high is 1.0087. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar remains under pressure after falling for two days. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, marked a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0462. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at 1.0405.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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