Asia FX
The appetite for risk soured on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve reiterated the slowing the US economy without committing to additional easing. I had warned you about this behavior, given the limited tools the Fed has; the Fed must preserve these tools for more dire situations. All eyes are now on the ECB meeting on Thursday, and there is a better chance of some action there.
The foreign currencies ended lower. The US stock markets slipped as well. But the gold/oil ratio fell.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the euro and franc. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro fell to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed an over two-year low last week. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is 1.2200. Further support is at 1.2125.
Initial resistance is at 1.2295. Friday's high at 1.2397.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since July 16
The September Japanese yen reversed from a four-day high. Last Thursday's 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2712. Further support is at 1.2635.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound sank to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It is trading in a symmetrical triangle. The pound had peaked at a one-month high last week. It had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5530. Further support is at 1.5456.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5607. Further resistance is at 1.5690 and 1.5767.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc fell to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a three-week high on Friday. It bottomed at a 19-month low on Tuesday
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0135. The next floor is 1.0040.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0245. Further resistance is at 1.0325. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0401.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar fell from a near a 2 ½-month high. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9864.
Immediate resistance is at 0.9987. Further resistance is at 1.0055. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar fell from a new high for the uptrend. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0355. The next floor is 1.0252.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0497. Further resistance is at 1.0550.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The foreign currencies ended lower. The US stock markets slipped as well. But the gold/oil ratio fell.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the euro and franc. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The ADP report showed that the private sector added 163,000 jobs in July following a downwardly revised increase of 172,000 jobs (from 176,000) in June.
- US: Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.4 in July from 52.5 in June.
- US: The ISM's manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.8 in July from 49.7 in June.
- US: Construction spending grew by 0.4% in June, less than +0.9% in May.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Retail sales for June
- Australia: Trade balance for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro fell to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed an over two-year low last week. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is 1.2200. Further support is at 1.2125.
Initial resistance is at 1.2295. Friday's high at 1.2397.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since July 16
The September Japanese yen reversed from a four-day high. Last Thursday's 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2712. Further support is at 1.2635.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound sank to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It is trading in a symmetrical triangle. The pound had peaked at a one-month high last week. It had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.5530. Further support is at 1.5456.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5607. Further resistance is at 1.5690 and 1.5767.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc fell to a four-day low and closed below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a three-week high on Friday. It bottomed at a 19-month low on Tuesday
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0135. The next floor is 1.0040.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0245. Further resistance is at 1.0325. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0401.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar fell from a near a 2 ½-month high. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9864.
Immediate resistance is at 0.9987. Further resistance is at 1.0055. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar fell from a new high for the uptrend. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0355. The next floor is 1.0252.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0497. Further resistance is at 1.0550.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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