US FX
The appetite for risk is limited ahead of the US open. The European and commodity currencies open little changed, if with various biases, after making little progress on Wednesday. The yen remains under pressure after falling all this week. The Asian stock markets were mixed. The European bourses are little changed, while the US stock markets are marginally higher in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are little changed.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro opens at the week below low of the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2245. Further support is 1.2175.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.2313. Further resistance is at 1.2390, 1.2450 and 1.2510.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is falling for a third day and reached a five-week low after breaking the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on Wednesday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2600. Further support is at 1.2515.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2690. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2719. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is marking time around the 100-day exponential moving average after falling off a two-week high on Tuesday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5740. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5640. Further support is at 1.5575 and 1.5500.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is quiet just below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
Initial resistance is at 1.0280. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar remains firm after surging on Wednesday and marking a 3 ½-month high overnight. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Good resistance is 1.0140. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0055. Further support is at .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is consolidating after bouncing off a near two-week low on Wednesday. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0415. Further support is at 1.0350.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Consumer inflation expectation slowed to 2.4% in August to 3.3% in July.
- Eurozone: Consumer Price Index remained stable at 2.4% annually in July, final data from showed. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were down 0.5% in July.
- Switzerland: ZEW Survey - Expectations improved to -33.3 in August from -42.5 in July.
- UK: Retail sales grew 0.3% in July after rising 0.8% in June.
Today's economic calendar
- US: Housing starts / building permits for July
- US: Continuing jobless claims
- US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for August
- Canada: Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities for June
- Canada: Manufacturing shipments for June
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro opens at the week below low of the 21-day exponential moving average. It peaked at a one-month high on August 6. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.2245. Further support is 1.2175.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.2313. Further resistance is at 1.2390, 1.2450 and 1.2510.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen is falling for a third day and reached a five-week low after breaking the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on Wednesday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2600. Further support is at 1.2515.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2690. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2719. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound is marking time around the 100-day exponential moving average after falling off a two-week high on Tuesday. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5740. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5640. Further support is at 1.5575 and 1.5500.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September Swiss franc is quiet just below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had marked a one-month high on August 6. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. The next floor is 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
Initial resistance is at 1.0280. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar remains firm after surging on Wednesday and marking a 3 ½-month high overnight. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. It should make a mild correction through the end of the week before the next move higher.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Good resistance is 1.0140. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at 1.0055. Further support is at .9915.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar is consolidating after bouncing off a near two-week low on Wednesday. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on Thursday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0510. The high of the uptrend is 1.0578.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0415. Further support is at 1.0350.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
-
- Idea Exchange is your direct link to the product managers, marketers, and the development teams who create cmegroup.com and will allow you to review functionality, participate in focus groups and provide feedback on upcoming Web initiatives
