Asia FX
The appetite for risk improved on Tuesday. Whereas they had different biases, the foreign currencies continued to consolidate after the European and commodity currencies soared on Friday. The market needs new factors after overreacting last week to the lack of central banks' easing and then surging without much reason on Friday. The US stock markets marched higher while the gold/oil ratio fell.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro improved on Tuesday after marking a one-month high on Monday and surging in an inside range on Friday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2450. Further resistance is at 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2310. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen slumped on Tuesday but remains in an inside range. It is trading below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2700. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound dipped improved on Tuesday after falling on Monday and rallying in an inside range on Friday. It is trading the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5700. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
Initial support is at 1.5560. Further support is at 1.5500 and 1. 5456.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The oversold September Swiss franc was quiet after marking a one-month high on Monday and rallying on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0366. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
Immediate support is at 1.0265. The next support is at 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar consolidated further on Tuesday after marking a near three-month high on Friday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0010. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. Further support is at .9900 and .9785.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar fell off a new the high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0500. The next floor is 1.0410. Distant support is at 1.0345.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0564. Further resistance is at 1.0620.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The number of job openings reached a four-year high in June, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.
- Canada: Building permits fell 2.5% in June after rising 7.1% in May.
- Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.8 in July from 55.3.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index for July
- Australia: Investment lending for homes for June
- Japan: Current account for June
- Japan: Eco watchers survey: outlook for July
EUR – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The September euro improved on Tuesday after marking a one-month high on Monday and surging in an inside range on Friday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low last week, but should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2450. Further resistance is at 1.2510.
Immediate support is at 1.2310. Further support is 1.2175.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since August 3
The September Japanese yen slumped on Tuesday but remains in an inside range. It is trading below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. A 1 ½-month peak remains in place. The yen is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.2700. Further support is at 1.2635.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2800. The next level is 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound dipped improved on Tuesday after falling on Monday and rallying in an inside range on Friday. It is trading the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is trading in a symmetrical triangle. It had peaked at a one-month high last week. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5700. Further resistance is at 1.5773.
Initial support is at 1.5560. Further support is at 1.5500 and 1. 5456.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Long since August 3
The oversold September Swiss franc was quiet after marking a one-month high on Monday and rallying on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0366. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
Immediate support is at 1.0265. The next support is at 1.0110. Thursday's low is 1.0042.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar consolidated further on Tuesday after marking a near three-month high on Friday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0010. Good resistance is 1.0115. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. Further support is at .9900 and .9785.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar fell off a new the high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0500. The next floor is 1.0410. Distant support is at 1.0345.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0564. Further resistance is at 1.0620.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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