Europe FX
The financial markets are nervous ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision today and the ECB meeting on Thursday. While markets hope for further easing, these central banks have yet to answer these expectations. The foreign currencies traded divergently in the Far East, with the yen up, the commodity currencies and pound down, and euro and franc flat. The Asian stock markets fell.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is generally sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the euro and franc. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro is still consolidating around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving after rallying in the second half of last week. It had bottomed an over two-year low last week. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is 1.2247. Further support is at 1.2200 and 1.2125.
Friday's high at 1.2397. Further resistance is at 1.2475.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since July 16
The September Japanese yen is marching higher for a third day and is challenging falling Thursday's 1 ½-month high. It is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
Initial support is at 1.2775. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2719.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound declined toward the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average after ending with reduced losses on Tuesday. It is trading in a symmetrical triangle after breaking above it on intraday basis on Friday. The pound had peaked at a one-month high last week. It had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5619. Further support is at 1.5570.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5767. Further resistance is at 1.5895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc is trading around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. It had peaked at a three-week high on Friday. It bottomed at a 19-month low on Tuesday
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0403.
Initial support is at 1.0190. The next floor is 1.0150. Tuesday's low is 1.0040.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is consolidating after falling off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Immediate resistance is at 0.9987. Further resistance is at 1.0055. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9866.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar slipped on weak Australian data after marking another high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0390. The next floors are 1.0335 and 1.0252.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0492. Further resistance is at 1.0550 and 1.0610.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is generally sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the euro and franc. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- UK: Overall shop price inflation slowed to 1.0% in July from 1.1% in June, the British Retail Consortium reported.
- Australia: AiG performance of manufacturing index fell to 40.3 in July from 47.2 in June.
- Australia: House Price Index rose 0.5% in the second quarter after slipping 0.1% in the first quarter.
- China: HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July from 50.2 in June.
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI for July
- UK: Manufacturing PMI for July
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro is still consolidating around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving after rallying in the second half of last week. It had bottomed an over two-year low last week. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is 1.2247. Further support is at 1.2200 and 1.2125.
Friday's high at 1.2397. Further resistance is at 1.2475.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Long since July 16
The September Japanese yen is marching higher for a third day and is challenging falling Thursday's 1 ½-month high. It is trading in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2854. A pivot high is at 1.2895.
Initial support is at 1.2775. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2719.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Long since July 19
The September pound declined toward the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average after ending with reduced losses on Tuesday. It is trading in a symmetrical triangle after breaking above it on intraday basis on Friday. The pound had peaked at a one-month high last week. It had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5619. Further support is at 1.5570.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5767. Further resistance is at 1.5895.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc is trading around the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. It had peaked at a three-week high on Friday. It bottomed at a 19-month low on Tuesday
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0325. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0403.
Initial support is at 1.0190. The next floor is 1.0150. Tuesday's low is 1.0040.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian dollar is consolidating after falling off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading in a wide channel rising since June 4. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Immediate resistance is at 0.9987. Further resistance is at 1.0055. A pivot high is at 1.0168.
Initial support is at .9915. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9866.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar slipped on weak Australian data after marking another high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It has been advancing overall since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0390. The next floors are 1.0335 and 1.0252.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0492. Further resistance is at 1.0550 and 1.0610.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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