Asia FX
The foreign currencies open little changed ahead of the Chinese economic data after the worse than expected nonfarm payrolls report sent the European and commodity currencies in a tail spin on Friday. While disappointing, this report is unlikely to tip the Fed's hand to further help the deteriorating US economy. After all, the Fed is running out of bullets.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways with additional downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro opens under pressure in the Far East after dropping to a two-year low on Friday. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2220. The next floor is 1.2137.
Initial resistance is at 1.2375. The next cap is 1.2476. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2520.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since June 21
The September Japanese yen opens little changed after advancing on Friday. It is trading around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2625. Further resistance is at 1.2715.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Short May 15
The September pound opens flat in the Far East after sinking to a four-week low on Friday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5440. Further support is at 1 1.5415 and 1.5266.
Initial resistance is at 1.5515. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5591. Distant resistance is at 1.5720.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc opens under pressure in Asia after sliding to a 1 1/2-year low on Friday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The franc bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0185. Further support is at 1.0140 and 1.0090.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0353. The next cap is at 1.0395. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0437.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian opens flat in the Far East after peaking at a 1 ½-month high on Thursday and falling on Friday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average and below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9770. The next floor is .9700.
Immediate resistance is at .9845. A pivot high is at .9885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar opens little changed in Asia after peaking at a two-month high on Thursday and sliding on Friday. It's overbought, so the risk remains on the downside. It has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is barely long.
Initial support is at 1.0070. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at a distant 1.0033. The next floor is .9910.
Immediate resistance is 1.0200. The next cap is 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0325.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is sideways with additional downside risk. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on the European currencies and yen. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: The non-farm payroll employment rose by only 80,000 jobs in June, below expectations for an increase of 100,000 jobs. The report for May was revised to +77,000 jobs from 69,000 jobs originally reported, and the report for April was revised to +68,000 jobs from 77,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2%.
- Canada: Building permits rose 7.4% in May after contracting -4.4% in April.
- Canada: The unemployment rate slipped to 7.2% in June from 7.3% in May.
- Canada: The Ivey PMI fell to 55.3 in June from 60.5 in May.
Today's economic calendar
- China: Consumer Price Index in June
- China: Producer Price Index in June
- Japan: Machinery orders in May
- Japan: Merchandise trade balance for May
- Japan: Eco watchers survey
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The oversold September euro opens under pressure in the Far East after dropping to a two-year low on Friday. The euro should remain under overall pressure.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.2220. The next floor is 1.2137.
Initial resistance is at 1.2375. The next cap is 1.2476. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2520.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since June 21
The September Japanese yen opens little changed after advancing on Friday. It is trading around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2625. Further resistance is at 1.2715.
Immediate support is at 1.2490. A pivot low is at 1.2416.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Short May 15
The September pound opens flat in the Far East after sinking to a four-week low on Friday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5440. Further support is at 1 1.5415 and 1.5266.
Initial resistance is at 1.5515. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5591. Distant resistance is at 1.5720.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The oversold September Swiss franc opens under pressure in Asia after sliding to a 1 1/2-year low on Friday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The franc bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0185. Further support is at 1.0140 and 1.0090.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0353. The next cap is at 1.0395. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0437.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Canadian opens flat in the Far East after peaking at a 1 ½-month high on Thursday and falling on Friday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average and below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9770. The next floor is .9700.
Immediate resistance is at .9845. A pivot high is at .9885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – September
Luca Model: Long since June 29
The September Australian dollar opens little changed in Asia after peaking at a two-month high on Thursday and sliding on Friday. It's overbought, so the risk remains on the downside. It has been advancing since June 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is barely long.
Initial support is at 1.0070. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at a distant 1.0033. The next floor is .9910.
Immediate resistance is 1.0200. The next cap is 1.0260. A pivot high is at 1.0325.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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