Asia FX
The foreign currencies open little changed in the Far East after the European and commodity currencies found a floor on Friday in the wake of the sharp selloff on Thursday. Helping the consolidation was the fact that the ECB said it would allow financial institutions to pledge a wider range of assets, including collateral of a lower quality, in exchange for cash. All eyes will be on the actions of the Eurozone later this week. So far, there have been mostly words. On Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Greece's new government to stop asking for more help and instead to move quickly to enact reform measures agreed to in return for previous bailouts from its European partners. Everyone knows that Greece will not implement most of the promises, so the ugly story will continue. As the Greek soccer fans yelled to the German fans: "We will never pay you back!" Sports madness aside, there is a lot of truth in that blurb.
In the interim, the economies of the US, Eurozone and even China are deteriorating.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on all the foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
No data
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The September euro opens off a nine-day low in the Far East after sinking below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average on Thursday. The euro had bottomed near a two-year low on June 1 after sliding nearly every day since peaking on May 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2614. Last Monday's high is 1.2750.
Immediate support is at 1.2528. Further support is at 1.2470. A pivot low is at 1.2298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since June 21
The September Japanese yen opens under pressure after sliding since Wednesday and hitting a two-month low on Friday. The yen is trading below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model went short.
Immediate support is at 1.2400. Further support is at 1.2295.
Initial resistance is at 1.2518. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2546 and the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average at 1.2582.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Short May 15
The September pound opens little changed in the Far East after falling to a one-week low on Friday. The pound remains below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. It had put in a short-term peak at a one-month high on Wednesday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5620. Wednesday's high is 1.5773.
Immediate support is at 1.5515. Further support is at 1.5455.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The September Swiss franc opens flat in Asia after sinking on Thursday below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average and marking time on Friday. The franc, which has been falling since peaking on May 1, bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0517 and the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average at 1.0649.
Initial support is at 1.0380. A pivot low is at 1.0280.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The September Canadian dollar opens below the 21-day moving average after bouncing on Friday from a nine-day low on Thursday. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average at .9746 and the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at .9824. Distant resistance is at .9935.
Immediate support is .9690. The next floor is .9640. A pivot low is at .9554.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The overbought September Australian dollar opens flat around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average after bouncing from at a one-week low on Friday. It has been advancing since June 4 and lodged a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday. It is trading above the 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0020. A pivot high is at 1.0142.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9916. The next support is at .9815.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
In the interim, the economies of the US, Eurozone and even China are deteriorating.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish. The LGR short-term model is short on all the foreign currencies. Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Canada: The CPI slipped 0.1% in May after rising 0.4% in April. The core CPI rose 0.2%, less than 0.4% in April.
Today's economic calendar
No data
EUR – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The September euro opens off a nine-day low in the Far East after sinking below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average on Thursday. The euro had bottomed near a two-year low on June 1 after sliding nearly every day since peaking on May 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2614. Last Monday's high is 1.2750.
Immediate support is at 1.2528. Further support is at 1.2470. A pivot low is at 1.2298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – September
Luca Model: Short since June 21
The September Japanese yen opens under pressure after sliding since Wednesday and hitting a two-month low on Friday. The yen is trading below the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model went short.
Immediate support is at 1.2400. Further support is at 1.2295.
Initial resistance is at 1.2518. The 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.2546 and the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average at 1.2582.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – September
Luca Model: Short May 15
The September pound opens little changed in the Far East after falling to a one-week low on Friday. The pound remains below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average. It had put in a short-term peak at a one-month high on Wednesday. The pound had formed a medium-term peak at an eight-month high on April 30 and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.5620. Wednesday's high is 1.5773.
Immediate support is at 1.5515. Further support is at 1.5455.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – September
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The September Swiss franc opens flat in Asia after sinking on Thursday below the 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average and marking time on Friday. The franc, which has been falling since peaking on May 1, bottomed at a 15-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0517 and the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average at 1.0649.
Initial support is at 1.0380. A pivot low is at 1.0280.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – September
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The September Canadian dollar opens below the 21-day moving average after bouncing on Friday from a nine-day low on Thursday. The loonie had peaked on April 27 and bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average at .9746 and the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at .9824. Distant resistance is at .9935.
Immediate support is .9690. The next floor is .9640. A pivot low is at .9554.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – September
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The overbought September Australian dollar opens flat around the 55-day exponentially smoothed moving average after bouncing from at a one-week low on Friday. It has been advancing since June 4 and lodged a 1 ½-month high on Wednesday. It is trading above the 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average resists at 1.0020. A pivot high is at 1.0142.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at .9916. The next support is at .9815.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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