Europe FX
The financial markets showed limited appetite for risk in the Far East as concerns about the fortunes of the US economy and the Eurozone peripherals persist. The major currencies need a strong pretext to recover, despite being oversold. The Asian stock markets were quiet. Once again, the DJI is trading below the neckline of a double top and the EUR/JPY is on its way to the target of a head and shoulders pattern in the 100 area. Trading will be light because Europe is observing Ascension Day.
The short-term outlook is sideways for all foreign currencies. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro edged up in the Far East after falling further to a four-month low on Wednesday. It has been falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. The euro broke below the bottom of a medium-term declining channel on Tuesday. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2785. The next caps are 1.2905 and 1.2995.
Wednesday's low is 1.2683. The next floors are 1.2645 and 1.2535.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen remained soft in Asia after sinking further on Wednesday. It is trading around the 21-day moving average and below the channel rising since March 20. The yen had peaked at a 2 ½-month high last Wednesday but closed below the channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.2420. Further support is at 1.2375 and 1.2240.
The 100-day moving average resists at 1.2507 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2592.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short May 15
The June pound remained weak in the Far East after falling further to a one-month low on Wednesday. It remains below the 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30 and is now challenging the bottom of a channel rising since January.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5865. Further support is at 1.5775.
The 55–day moving average caps at 1.5978 and the 21-day moving average at 1.6064. Further resistance is at 1.6140 and 1.6195.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc struggled higher in Asia after falling further to a four-month low on Wednesday. It has fallen unevenly since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a wide channel declining since the end of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0680. The next cap is at 1.0745. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.0818.
Support is at 1.0560. Further support is at 1.0480.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar remained weak in the Far East after sinking to a four-month low on Wednesday. The loonie remains in an inside range. It is trading below the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. The loonie peaked on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Wednesday's low is .9864. Further support is at .9807.
The 200-day moving average caps at .9972 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0007.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar edged up in Asia after falling to a five-month low on Wednesday. It has fallen in all but two days in May. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is trading below the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at .9935. The next caps are 1.0000 and 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0106.
Wednesday's low is .9838. Further support is at .9804 and .9716.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook is sideways for all foreign currencies. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Consumer inflation expectations slowed to 3.1% in May from 3.3% in April.
- Japan: Gross domestic product expanded 1.0 percent in the first quarter following the upwardly revised flat reading in the fourth quarter.
- Japan: Industrial production for March
Today's economic calendar
- European Monetary Union: Ascension Day
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro edged up in the Far East after falling further to a four-month low on Wednesday. It has been falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. The euro broke below the bottom of a medium-term declining channel on Tuesday. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2785. The next caps are 1.2905 and 1.2995.
Wednesday's low is 1.2683. The next floors are 1.2645 and 1.2535.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen remained soft in Asia after sinking further on Wednesday. It is trading around the 21-day moving average and below the channel rising since March 20. The yen had peaked at a 2 ½-month high last Wednesday but closed below the channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.2420. Further support is at 1.2375 and 1.2240.
The 100-day moving average resists at 1.2507 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2592.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short May 15
The June pound remained weak in the Far East after falling further to a one-month low on Wednesday. It remains below the 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30 and is now challenging the bottom of a channel rising since January.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.5865. Further support is at 1.5775.
The 55–day moving average caps at 1.5978 and the 21-day moving average at 1.6064. Further resistance is at 1.6140 and 1.6195.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc struggled higher in Asia after falling further to a four-month low on Wednesday. It has fallen unevenly since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a wide channel declining since the end of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0680. The next cap is at 1.0745. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.0818.
Support is at 1.0560. Further support is at 1.0480.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar remained weak in the Far East after sinking to a four-month low on Wednesday. The loonie remains in an inside range. It is trading below the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. The loonie peaked on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Wednesday's low is .9864. Further support is at .9807.
The 200-day moving average caps at .9972 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0007.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar edged up in Asia after falling to a five-month low on Wednesday. It has fallen in all but two days in May. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is trading below the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at .9935. The next caps are 1.0000 and 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0106.
Wednesday's low is .9838. Further support is at .9804 and .9716.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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