Asia FX
The financial markets were risk averse on Monday after the People's Bank of China cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by .50% to inject liquidity into the system and in view of the deteriorating situation in the Eurozone. The Greek drama is getting out of hand, the Spanish yield hit record highs and Moody's downgraded Italian banks. May is bloody month and it can get much bloodier from here. I wouldn't be surprised to hear another batch of empty promises from Greece – should they mean anything anymore for the top Eurozone politicians. Most foreign currencies experienced further declines after the European and commodity currencies fell for two weeks. Only the pound held well, as the one major European currency that was unaffected by the fire of the Eurozone peripherals. The US stocks, old and oil fell.
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro fell to a near a four-month low on Monday after falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. The euro is approaching the bottom of a medium-term declining channel. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is 1.2805. The next floors are 1.2785 and 1.2730.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2905. The next cap is 1.2995. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.3080.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen bounced from a ten-day low and closed just above the 100-day moving average after peaking at a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2596. Distant resistance is at 1.2690.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2441. Further support is at 1.2375.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed from a 24-day low and closed around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The pound, which had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30is providing a counterweight to the decimated euro and franc.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6140. Further resistance is at 1.6195. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
Initial support is at 1.6035. Further support is at 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell to a near four-month low on Monday after falling unevenly since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Support is at 1.0655. Further support is at 1.0540.
Initial resistance is at 1.0745. The next cap is 1.0815. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.0889.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar fell below the 200-day moving average on Monday after having an outside day on Friday and hitting a 3 ½-month low on Wednesday. It is trading below the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. The loonie had put in a medium-term peak to on April 27.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
A pivot low is .9910. Further support is at .9807.
The 100-day moving average caps at .9995 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0043.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar fell to a five-month low on Monday after falling in all but two days in May. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is testing the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9865. Further support is at .9825.
Initial resistance is at .9981. The next cap is 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.0174.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- No data
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: RBA Meeting's Minutes
- Japan: Consumer confidence for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro fell to a near a four-month low on Monday after falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. The euro is approaching the bottom of a medium-term declining channel. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is 1.2805. The next floors are 1.2785 and 1.2730.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2905. The next cap is 1.2995. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.3080.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen bounced from a ten-day low and closed just above the 100-day moving average after peaking at a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2596. Distant resistance is at 1.2690.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2441. Further support is at 1.2375.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed from a 24-day low and closed around the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The pound, which had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30is providing a counterweight to the decimated euro and franc.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6140. Further resistance is at 1.6195. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
Initial support is at 1.6035. Further support is at 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell to a near four-month low on Monday after falling unevenly since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Support is at 1.0655. Further support is at 1.0540.
Initial resistance is at 1.0745. The next cap is 1.0815. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.0889.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar fell below the 200-day moving average on Monday after having an outside day on Friday and hitting a 3 ½-month low on Wednesday. It is trading below the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. The loonie had put in a medium-term peak to on April 27.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
A pivot low is .9910. Further support is at .9807.
The 100-day moving average caps at .9995 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0043.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar fell to a five-month low on Monday after falling in all but two days in May. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is testing the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9865. Further support is at .9825.
Initial resistance is at .9981. The next cap is 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.0174.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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