Europe FX
Most foreign currencies remained under pressure in Asia after the European and commodity currencies fell for two weeks. The Asian stock rose. News that the People's Bank of China cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by .50% to inject liquidity into the system added to the pressure because it emphasized the spread of economic weakness to what it's been hoped to be the world industrial engine.
On Friday, Greek conservative leader Samaras raised expectations that a political deal to form a new Greek government may be reached soon. I had warned you to expect failure, and this what Greece delivered again. The charade that the Eurozone peripherals will be able to get their act together continues. We just don't know when the end the charade will occur.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro remained soft near a four-month low in the Far East after falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is 1.2845. The next floor is 1.2785.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2925. The next cap is 1.2995. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.3084.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen fell to a ten-day low and below the 100-day moving average after stretching to a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2438.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2596. Distant resistance is at 1.2690.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Friday. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6035. Further support is at 1.5950.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.6101. Further resistance is at 1.6195. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc is trading at a two-month low after falling in leaps and bounds since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
A pivot low is 1.0725. Further support is at 1.0655.
Initial resistance is at 1.0815. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0892.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar edged up and around the 200-day moving average after having an outside day on Friday and hitting a 3 ½-month low on Wednesday. It briefly broke the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The loonie had put in a medium-term peak to on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
A pivot low is .9910. Further support is at .9807.
The 100-day moving average caps at .9996 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0046.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is trading at the low of the year after advancing on Thursday and sinking on Friday. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is testing the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9935. Further support is at .9865.
Initial resistance is at 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0179.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
On Friday, Greek conservative leader Samaras raised expectations that a political deal to form a new Greek government may be reached soon. I had warned you to expect failure, and this what Greece delivered again. The charade that the Eurozone peripherals will be able to get their act together continues. We just don't know when the end the charade will occur.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- China: The People's Bank of China delivered a 50-basis-point cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), effective from May 18. The cut of RRR to 20.0% from 20.5% for big banks releases an estimated 400 billion yuan ($63.5 billion) that could be used for bank lending.
- Japan: Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index rose 0.3% in April after increasing 0.5% in March.
- Australia: Home loans rose 0.3% in March after falling 2.5% in February.
Today's economic calendar
- European Monetary Union: Industrial production for March
- Switzerland: Producer and import prices for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro remained soft near a four-month low in the Far East after falling nearly every day since peaking on May 1. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is 1.2845. The next floor is 1.2785.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2925. The next cap is 1.2995. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.3084.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen fell to a ten-day low and below the 100-day moving average after stretching to a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2438.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2596. Distant resistance is at 1.2690.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Friday. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on April 30.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6035. Further support is at 1.5950.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.6101. Further resistance is at 1.6195. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc is trading at a two-month low after falling in leaps and bounds since peaking on May 1. It is trading well below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
A pivot low is 1.0725. Further support is at 1.0655.
Initial resistance is at 1.0815. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0892.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June Canadian dollar edged up and around the 200-day moving average after having an outside day on Friday and hitting a 3 ½-month low on Wednesday. It briefly broke the bottom of the channel rising since mid-December. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The loonie had put in a medium-term peak to on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
A pivot low is .9910. Further support is at .9807.
The 100-day moving average caps at .9996 and the 21-day moving average at 1.0046.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is trading at the low of the year after advancing on Thursday and sinking on Friday. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February and is testing the bottom of its declining channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9935. Further support is at .9865.
Initial resistance is at 1.0080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0179.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
-
- Idea Exchange is your direct link to the product managers, marketers, and the development teams who create cmegroup.com and will allow you to review functionality, participate in focus groups and provide feedback on upcoming Web initiatives
