Europe FX
The appetite for risk imploded further in the Far East after deteriorating on Tuesday on a delayed reaction to the fresh, but not surprising, European political woes. The European and commodity currencies are weakening further after falling on Tuesday and surprisingly reversing sharp early losses on Monday. The Asian equity markets sank in line with the US markets.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro resumed losses in the Far East after closing off its lows on Tuesday. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
Initial resistance is at 1.3070. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3141.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is still consolidating around the 100-day moving average after marking a 2 ½-month high on Monday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2599. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
Immediate support is at 1.2440. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2401.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound slipped in the Far East after closing down on Tuesday and reversing from a 12-day low on Monday. The 21-day exponential moving average continues to provide a base. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6103. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell again in Asia after slipping on Tuesday, but remains in an inside range. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725.
Initial resistance is at 1.0880. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0938.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar eased further in the Far East after diving below the 55-day moving average on Tuesday. It remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. The 200-day moving average held. The loonie had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at .9974. A pivot low is .9933.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0066. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar fell to the low of the year in Asia, extending losses since April 30. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9995. Further support is at .9920.
Initial resistance is at 1.0105. The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0175. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.0236.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- United Kingdom: The BRC Shop Price index of same-store sales decreased 3.3% in April year-on-year after rising 1.3%.
- Japan: Leading / Coincident Index for March
Today's economic calendar
- Germany: Trade balance for March
- Germany: Current account for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7
The June euro resumed losses in the Far East after closing off its lows on Tuesday. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
Initial resistance is at 1.3070. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3141.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is still consolidating around the 100-day moving average after marking a 2 ½-month high on Monday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2599. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
Immediate support is at 1.2440. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2401.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound slipped in the Far East after closing down on Tuesday and reversing from a 12-day low on Monday. The 21-day exponential moving average continues to provide a base. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6103. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell again in Asia after slipping on Tuesday, but remains in an inside range. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725.
Initial resistance is at 1.0880. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0938.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar eased further in the Far East after diving below the 55-day moving average on Tuesday. It remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. The 200-day moving average held. The loonie had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at .9974. A pivot low is .9933.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0066. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar fell to the low of the year in Asia, extending losses since April 30. It is trading well below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9995. Further support is at .9920.
Initial resistance is at 1.0105. The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0175. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.0236.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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