Europe FX
The appetite for risk was mixed in the Far East after rebounding unexpectedly in the US on Monday. The US traders ignored the "to-be expected" elections results in France and Greece. The European and commodity currencies slipped in Asia after reversing sharp early Monday losses. The Asian stock markets bounced.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro slipped in Asia after ending well off a 3 ½-month low on Monday and gapping down on the open in Asia. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
Initial resistance is at 1.3080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3158.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is consolidating around the 100-day moving average after marking a 2 ½-month high on Monday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2598. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
Immediate support is at 1.2440. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2398.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound consolidated in Asia after reversing from a 12-day low on Monday. It remains above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6101. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc edged lower in the Far East after ending well off its worst levels on Monday. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0951.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar marked time in Asia after reversing from a three-week low and closing above the 55-day moving average on Monday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9998. A pivot low is .9933.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0078. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar was capped by the 200-day moving average and slipped in Asia after reversing from a four-month low on Monday. It fell every day of last week. It is trading just below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0065. Further support is at 1.0000 and .9920.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0177. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0261.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: The trade deficit worsened to -A$1.587 million in March from –A$754 million in February.
Today's economic calendar
- Germany: Industrial production for March
- Germany: Wholesale Price Index for April
- Switzerland: SECO consumer climate for April
- United Kingdom: BRC retail sales monitor for April
- United Kingdom: The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors House Price Balance fell to -19 in April from -11 in March.
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro slipped in Asia after ending well off a 3 ½-month low on Monday and gapping down on the open in Asia. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
Initial resistance is at 1.3080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3158.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is consolidating around the 100-day moving average after marking a 2 ½-month high on Monday. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2598. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
Immediate support is at 1.2440. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2398.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound consolidated in Asia after reversing from a 12-day low on Monday. It remains above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6101. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc edged lower in the Far East after ending well off its worst levels on Monday. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0951.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar marked time in Asia after reversing from a three-week low and closing above the 55-day moving average on Monday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9998. A pivot low is .9933.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0078. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar was capped by the 200-day moving average and slipped in Asia after reversing from a four-month low on Monday. It fell every day of last week. It is trading just below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0065. Further support is at 1.0000 and .9920.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0177. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0261.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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