Asia FX
The appetite for risk made a sharp and unexpected recovery in the US on Monday despite the fact that the elections in France and Greece repudiated austerity measures, which should exacerbate tensions in the Eurozone. Basically, the US traders ignored "to-be expected" information.
The European and commodity currencies ended off their worst levels and even higher after initially accelerating last week's losses overnight. The US stock markets ended little changed. Gold and oil closed down.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro ended almost completely off a 3 ½-month low on Monday after gapping down on the open in Asia. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.3080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3170.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed off a 2 ½-month high and trades above the 100-day moving average. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2507 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2387.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2599. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed from a 12-day low and ended up on Monday. It remains above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6094. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc ended well off its worst levels on Monday after initially sinking to the lowest level since March 15 and gapping down in Asia. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0961.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725. Further support is at 1.0630.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar reversed from a three-week low and close above the 55-day moving average on Monday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0081. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9997. A pivot low is .9933.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar reversed from a four-month low and ended up on Monday. It fell every day of last week. It is trading just below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0177. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0274.
Immediate support is at 1.0065. Further support is at 1.0000 and .9920.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The European and commodity currencies ended off their worst levels and even higher after initially accelerating last week's losses overnight. The US stock markets ended little changed. Gold and oil closed down.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- United States: Consumer credit consumer by $21.4 billion in March following a revised $9.3 billion increase in February. This is the biggest increase in credit since November of 2001.
- Canada: Building permits rose 4.7% in March following an upwardly revised 7.6% increase in February.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Trade balance for March -
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro ended almost completely off a 3 ½-month low on Monday after gapping down on the open in Asia. It had closed down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook turned bearish after the euro broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.3080. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3170.
Monday's low is 1.2957. The next floors are 1.2900 and 1.2835.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed off a 2 ½-month high and trades above the 100-day moving average. It remains in a channel rising since March 21.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2507 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2387.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2599. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed from a 12-day low and ended up on Monday. It remains above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6094. Further support is at 1.6035 and 1.5950.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc ended well off its worst levels on Monday after initially sinking to the lowest level since March 15 and gapping down in Asia. The franc peaked last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0961.
Monday's low is 1.0778. A pivot low is 1.0725. Further support is at 1.0630.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar reversed from a three-week low and close above the 55-day moving average on Monday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0081. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9997. A pivot low is .9933.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar reversed from a four-month low and ended up on Monday. It fell every day of last week. It is trading just below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0177. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0274.
Immediate support is at 1.0065. Further support is at 1.0000 and .9920.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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