Asia FX
The European and commodity currencies open down in the Far East in the wake of the poor US NFP report. All of the foreign currencies have fallen for a couple of days and should encounter further weakness in light of the poor results in the European elections in France, Germany, and Greece. The euro gapped down. The US stock markets plunged on Friday and there is little reason to expect the Asian and European exchanges to perform any better.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro gapped down on the open at a three-week low in the Far East after closing down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.3000. The next floor is 1.2900.
Initial resistance is at 1.3075. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3166.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens up above the 100-day moving average and close to the top of the upmove since March 21. The yen had reached a new high for the uptrend last Tuesday.
The short-term outlook is sideways slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2600. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2508 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2391.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is falling for a sixth day in the Far East after falling every day of last week. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday. It is still trading above the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6090. Further support is at 1.6035.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc gapped down on the open in Asia and reached a three-week low. The franc peaked at a one-month high last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0817. A pivot low is 1.027.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0958.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar opens at a two-week low in the Far East after falling since Wednesday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9996. A pivot low is .9945.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0077. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar opens at a four-month low in Asia after falling every day of last week. It is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0000. Further support is at .9920.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0176. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0267.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- United States: The overall economy added 115,000 jobs in April, down from upwardly revised from the 120,000 initially reported 154,000 in March job. The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% in April from 8.2% in March.
- Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.2 in April from 65.0 in March.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index for April
- Australia: Building permits For March
- Australia: National Australia Bank's Business confidence for April
- Australia: Retail sales for March
- Japan: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 25)
The June euro gapped down on the open at a three-week low in the Far East after closing down every day of last week. It is holding well below the 21-day moving averages, so it's oversold.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.3000. The next floor is 1.2900.
Initial resistance is at 1.3075. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3166.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens up above the 100-day moving average and close to the top of the upmove since March 21. The yen had reached a new high for the uptrend last Tuesday.
The short-term outlook is sideways slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.2600. Further resistance is at 1.2690.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2508 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2391.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is falling for a sixth day in the Far East after falling every day of last week. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high last Monday. It is still trading above the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6090. Further support is at 1.6035.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6200. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc gapped down on the open in Asia and reached a three-week low. The franc peaked at a one-month high last Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0817. A pivot low is 1.027.
Initial resistance is at 1.0900. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0958.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since May 7 (reversing long since April 24)
The June Canadian dollar opens at a two-week low in the Far East after falling since Wednesday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on April 27. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at .9996. A pivot low is .9945.
The 21-day moving average caps at 1.0077. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar opens at a four-month low in Asia after falling every day of last week. It is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0000. Further support is at .9920.
The 200-day moving average resists at 1.0176. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0267.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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