Asia FX
The financial markets were risk averse on Wednesday due rising unemployment and declining PMI in the Eurozone and expectations for a weak NFP report in the US on Friday. The ADP report, which usually has a high correlation with the NFP report, disappointed. The euro and franc spearheaded the foreign currencies' decline. The US stock indexes closed little changed and gold and oil ended slightly lower.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro fell to a nine-day low and closed below the 21-day moving average on Wednesday. The weak regional data was accelerated the decline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3075. The next floor is 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3194. Further resistance is at 1.3287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen fell to a three-day low, but closed little changed, on Wednesday after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2350. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound fell for a third day after marking an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6070.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell to a nine-day low on Wednesday after peaking at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.1089. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar made little progress on Wednesday after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar consolidated on Wednesday after falling for 2 1/2 days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0235. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0308. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP, and the March number was revised downward from 209,000 to 201,000.
- US: New orders for manufactured goods fell by 1.5% in March following a 1.1% increase in February.
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: AiG Performance of Services Index for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro fell to a nine-day low and closed below the 21-day moving average on Wednesday. The weak regional data was accelerated the decline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3075. The next floor is 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3194. Further resistance is at 1.3287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen fell to a three-day low, but closed little changed, on Wednesday after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2350. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound fell for a third day after marking an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6070.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc fell to a nine-day low on Wednesday after peaking at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.1089. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar made little progress on Wednesday after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar consolidated on Wednesday after falling for 2 1/2 days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0235. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0308. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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