Europe FX
The foreign currencies made little progress in the Far East after most of them consolidated on Tuesday. Good US economic data failed to give the US dollar a sustained gain. Only the Aussie remains under pressure after losing 1% to the deeper than expected RBA rate cut.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro continues to mark time above the 21-day moving average for a third day. More information is needed
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3295. Further resistance is at 1.3370.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3200. The next floors are 1.3150 and 1.3095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was barely changed in Asia after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2320. Further support is at 1.2233.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is consolidating after marking an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6298. Further resistance is at 1.6370.
Initial support is at 1.6182. The next floor is 1.6140. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6074.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc is consolidating after peaking at a 3 1/2-week high on Friday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1090. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0985. The next floors are 1.0910 and 1.0865.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar edged lower in Asia after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is consolidating after falling for two days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0255. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0309. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Japan: Monetary base slipped 0.3% in April after declining 0.2% in March
- China: HSBC Manufacturing PMI for April
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for April
- Eurozone: Unemployment rate for March
- Germany: Unemployment rate for May
- Switzerland: Retail sales for March
- Switzerland: SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index for April UK: Mortgage approvals for March
- UK: Halifax house for April
- UK: Consumer credit for March
- UK: PMI Construction for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro continues to mark time above the 21-day moving average for a third day. More information is needed
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3295. Further resistance is at 1.3370.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3200. The next floors are 1.3150 and 1.3095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was barely changed in Asia after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2320. Further support is at 1.2233.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is consolidating after marking an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6298. Further resistance is at 1.6370.
Initial support is at 1.6182. The next floor is 1.6140. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6074.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc is consolidating after peaking at a 3 1/2-week high on Friday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1090. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0985. The next floors are 1.0910 and 1.0865.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar edged lower in Asia after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is consolidating after falling for two days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0255. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0309. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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