US FX
The financial markets are adverse to risk ahead of a likely soft US NFP report today. Overnight, good Chinese economic data was counterbalanced by weak Eurozone data. All of the foreign currencies open under pressure after falling further on Thursday. Most of the Asian indexes declined, the European bourses down and the US stock markets are slightly lower in pre-open trading. Gold and oil are down as well. The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro opens marginally lower in the US after closing down the entire week. It is holding below the 21-day moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3095. The next floor is 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3186. Further resistance is at 1.3287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is consolidating below the 100-day moving average. The yen had reached a new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2391 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2370. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2506. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound opens little changed in the US after falling for four days. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6089.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc opens slightly lower in the US after falling to a two-week low on Thursday. The franc peaked at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0904. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0974. The next cap is 1.1065. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar opens a little lower in the US after reversing from a three-day high on Thursday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average but is not overbought any longer. The short-term outlook is sideway to slightly bearish s. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0089. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar opens lower in the US, extending this week's losses. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and just above the 200-day moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average supports at 1.0178. A pivot low is at 1.0163. Further support is at 1.0098.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0290. Further resistance is at 1.0365.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: In its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the inflation and growth outlook for the economy amid softness in labor market, moderate wage growth and a weak property market. It lowered the forecast for the GDP to 2.75% in the year ending June 2012 from the February forecast of 3.5%. For the year ending December 2012, growth is seen at 3%, lower than previous projection of 3-3.5%.
- China: The headline HSBC business activity index rose to a six-month high of 54.1 in April from 53.3 in March.
- European Monetary Union: The final Purchasing Manager Index services fell to 46.7 in April from 49.1 in March.
- European Monetary Union: Retail sales climbed 0.3% month-on-month in March, offsetting February's 0.2% drop.
Today's economic calendar
- United States: Nonfarm payrolls / Unemployment rate for April
- Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro opens marginally lower in the US after closing down the entire week. It is holding below the 21-day moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.3095. The next floor is 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3186. Further resistance is at 1.3287.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen is consolidating below the 100-day moving average. The yen had reached a new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2391 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2370. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2506. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound opens little changed in the US after falling for four days. The pound had peaked at an eight-month high on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6089.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc opens slightly lower in the US after falling to a two-week low on Thursday. The franc peaked at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0904. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0974. The next cap is 1.1065. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar opens a little lower in the US after reversing from a three-day high on Thursday. It had climbed to a new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average but is not overbought any longer. The short-term outlook is sideway to slightly bearish s. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0089. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar opens lower in the US, extending this week's losses. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and just above the 200-day moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 200-day moving average supports at 1.0178. A pivot low is at 1.0163. Further support is at 1.0098.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0290. Further resistance is at 1.0365.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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