US FX
The financial markets are adverse to risk ahead of the US open amid rising unemployment and declining PMI in the Eurozone after a mixed behavior on Tuesday. The euro and franc are leading the other foreign currencies lower after most of them consolidated on Tuesday. The Asian stock indexes closed up, the European bourses are trading mostly up, but the US stock indexes are slightly lower in pre-open trading. Gold and oil are also slightly lower.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish for as long as the stock indexes remain under pressure. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro fell to a nine-day low and opens below the 21-day moving average after peaking on Tuesday. The weak regional data was accelerated the decline.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3192. Further resistance is at 1.3287. Immediate support is at 1.3075. The next floor is 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens off a three-day low in the US after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2384 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2347. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2507. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound remains weak after falling since Monday, when it marked an eight-month high. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6069.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc opens at a nine-day low after peaking at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0978 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.1089. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar opens slightly lower in the US after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is consolidating after falling for two days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0255. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0308. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is bearish for as long as the stock indexes remain under pressure. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers' index for the factory sector rose to 49.3 in April from 48.3 in March.
- Eurozone: The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing fell to a near three-year low of 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March.
- Eurozone: The jobless rate rose to 10.9% in March from 10.8% in February.
- Germany: The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.8% in April. The March figure was revised up from 6.7%.
- Italy: The jobless rate rose to 9.8% in March from February's 9.6%.
- Switzerland: The procure.ch/Credit Suisse Purchasing Managers' index fell to 46.9 in April from 51.1 in March.
- UK: The number of mortgages approved in March totaled 49,860 compared to 49,029 in February.
- UK: The PMI for the construction sector fell to 55.8 in April from 56.7 in March, which was the highest reading in twenty-one months.
Today's economic calendar
- United States: ADP employment change for April
- United States: Factory orders for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro fell to a nine-day low and opens below the 21-day moving average after peaking on Tuesday. The weak regional data was accelerated the decline.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3192. Further resistance is at 1.3287. Immediate support is at 1.3075. The next floor is 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens off a three-day low in the US after advancing to new high for the uptrend on Tuesday. It is trading above the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2384 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2347. Further support is at 1.2233.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2507. Further resistance is at 1.2530.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound remains weak after falling since Monday, when it marked an eight-month high. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6115. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6069.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6235. The top of the uptrend is 1.6298.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since May 2
The June Swiss franc opens at a nine-day low after peaking at a one-month high on Tuesday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floor is 1.0865.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0978 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.1089. A pivot high is at 1.1213.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar opens slightly lower in the US after peaking new high for the uptrend on Friday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0086. The next floor is .9955.
The top of the uptrend is at 1.0192. The next caps are 1.0287 and 1.0315.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 30
The June Australian dollar is consolidating after falling for two days on the RBA's deep rate cut. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0255. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0308. The top of the uptrend is 1.0422. Further resistance is at 1.0485.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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