Europe FX
The foreign currency futures consolidated in the Far East after most of the European and the commodity currencies encountered profit taking sales on Wednesday on gains made since Monday. Only the pound remained firm after extending its upmove due to inflationary pressures in the UK. The Asian stock indexes fell.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro made little progress in the Far East after ending with only minor losses on Wednesday. It had reversed from a one-month low on Monday and peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial support is at 1.3060. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen remains relatively soft after falling for two days and reaching a seven-day low on Wednesday. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average and just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2270. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2380. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound consolidated in the Far East after advancing for three consecutive days. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6056. Further resistance is at 1.6110.
Initial support is at 1.5965.The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5906 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5810.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc marked time in Asia after slipping slightly on Wednesday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0855. The next floors are 1.0817 and 1.0770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0948. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar has been consolidating in the Far East after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar remains soft after slipping to the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.0235. Further support is at 1.0150.
Initial resistance is at 1.0335. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: National Australia Bank's Business confidence fell -1 in the first quarter from 1 in the previous quarter.
- Japan: The merchandise trade balance showed a deficit of 82.55 billion yen in March following the 29.4 billion yen surplus in February.
Today's economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Consumer confidence for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro made little progress in the Far East after ending with only minor losses on Wednesday. It had reversed from a one-month low on Monday and peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial support is at 1.3060. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen remains relatively soft after falling for two days and reaching a seven-day low on Wednesday. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average and just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2270. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2380. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound consolidated in the Far East after advancing for three consecutive days. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6056. Further resistance is at 1.6110.
Initial support is at 1.5965.The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5906 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5810.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc marked time in Asia after slipping slightly on Wednesday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0855. The next floors are 1.0817 and 1.0770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0948. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar has been consolidating in the Far East after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar remains soft after slipping to the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.0235. Further support is at 1.0150.
Initial resistance is at 1.0335. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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