Europe FX
The European and the commodity currencies consolidated in the Far East after ended higher on Tuesday. The appetite for risk had increased further on Tuesday amid good earnings for major US companies. The Asian stock indexes advanced to echo the US markets.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro was quiet in the Far East after ending little unchanged on Tuesday and reversing aggressively from a one-month low on Monday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3167. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Initial support is at 1.3080. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen declined further in Asia after falling in an inside range on Tuesday. The yen had marked a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It fell below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2269. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2384. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound slipped in the Far East after climbing up on Tuesday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5885 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5806. Further support is at 1.5770.
Initial resistance is at 1.5980. Further resistance is at 1.6056.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc consolidated in Asia after ending little changed on Tuesday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0900. The next floor is 1.0817.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0951. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar consolidated in Asia after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday on a hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar marked time in the Far East after closing above the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It is testing the 55-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0380. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0312. Further support is at 1.0240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Conference Board leading index slowed to 0.2% in February from 0.6% in January.
Today's economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Current Account for February
- Eurozone: Construction output for February
- Switzerland: ZEW survey - expectations for April
- UK: Bank of England Minutes
- UK: ILO unemployment rate for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro was quiet in the Far East after ending little unchanged on Tuesday and reversing aggressively from a one-month low on Monday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3167. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Initial support is at 1.3080. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen declined further in Asia after falling in an inside range on Tuesday. The yen had marked a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It fell below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2269. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2384. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound slipped in the Far East after climbing up on Tuesday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5885 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5806. Further support is at 1.5770.
Initial resistance is at 1.5980. Further resistance is at 1.6056.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc consolidated in Asia after ending little changed on Tuesday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0900. The next floor is 1.0817.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0951. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar consolidated in Asia after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday on a hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar marked time in the Far East after closing above the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It is testing the 55-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.0380. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0312. Further support is at 1.0240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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