Asia FX
The appetite for risk improved significantly in the US leg of Monday despite concern about the slowdown in the world economic recovery in general and the Eurozone peripherals' problems in particular. The US economic data was mixed. Yet, the European currencies aggressively reversed losses and the commodity currencies ended with reduced losses, so they should attempt to recover for at least half a day. The US stock indexes were divergent, with the DJI up and Nasdaq down. AAPL lost more than 4% on profit taking ahead of earning; it should recover in Tuesday and Wednesday, but the failure to do so would suggest deeper profit taking. Meanwhile, oil was up and gold down.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro reversed from a one-month low and closed up on Monday after sliding on Friday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3175. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Initial support is at 1.3080. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed at a 1 ½-month high and above the 55-day exponential moving average on Monday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2460. Further resistance is at 1.2525.
The 550day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385. The next floor is 1.2320. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2252.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound reversed from a four-day low and closed up on Monday. It ended above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5877 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5805. Further support is at 1.5770.
Initial resistance is at 1.5930. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc reversed from a one-month low and ended up on Monday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0953. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
Initial support is at 1.0900. The next floor is 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar is still consolidating around the 55-day exponential moving average after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Immediate support is at .9955. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar finished around the 100-day exponential moving average on Monday after reversing from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the resistance of the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0305. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: Retail sales rose 0.8% in March, while the February figures were revised down slightly to +1% from +1.1%.
- US: The New York Fed's general business conditions index plunged to 6.6 in April from 20.2 in March.
- US: Total Net TIC flows rose to $107.7 billion in February from $3.1 billion in January. Net Long-Term TIC flows fell to $10.1 billion in February from $102.4 billion in January.
- US: Business inventories rose 0.6% in February, slower than 0.8% in January.
- US: NAHB housing market index dropped to 25 in April from 28 in March.
- Canada: Foreign investors have acquired Canadian securities worth C$12.5 billion, while Canadian investors purchased C$2.2 billion of foreign securities.
Today's economic calendar:
- Australia: Reserve Bank Board Minutes for April
- Japan: Industrial production for February
- Japan: Consumer Confidence Index for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro reversed from a one-month low and closed up on Monday after sliding on Friday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3175. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Initial support is at 1.3080. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed at a 1 ½-month high and above the 55-day exponential moving average on Monday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2460. Further resistance is at 1.2525.
The 550day exponential moving average supports at 1.2385. The next floor is 1.2320. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2252.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound reversed from a four-day low and closed up on Monday. It ended above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5877 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5805. Further support is at 1.5770.
Initial resistance is at 1.5930. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc reversed from a one-month low and ended up on Monday. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0953. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
Initial support is at 1.0900. The next floor is 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar is still consolidating around the 55-day exponential moving average after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Immediate support is at .9955. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar finished around the 100-day exponential moving average on Monday after reversing from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the resistance of the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0305. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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