Europe FX
The European and commodity currencies extended their losses from Friday in the Far East. Their sharp decline on Friday suggests further pressure for at least part of Monday before these currencies will attempt to recover into Tuesday. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes tumbled in line with the US equities
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro fell to a one-month low in the Far East after sliding sharply enough on Friday to reverse the gains made on Wednesday and Thursday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.3010. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3105. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position increased by 21,884 contracts to ‐101,364 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was firm in the Far East after hitting a three-day low on Friday and peaking at a near five-week high on Wednesday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2420. Distant resistance is at 1.2525.
Immediate support is at 1.2320. The next floor is 1.2275. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2246.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position increased by 976 contracts to ‐66,084 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound remained weak in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse the gains of the previous two days. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5803. Further support is at 1.5770 and 1.5650.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5869. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position increased by 9,977 contracts to ‐18,784 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc fell to a one-month low in the Far East after sliding on Friday and is challenging the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0838. The next floor is 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1860. The next cap is 1.0905. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0945. Distant resistance is at 1.1020.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 4,757 contracts to ‐9,919 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar is consolidating around the 55-day exponential moving average after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at .9960. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position decreased by 1,520 contracts to 27,967 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar fell in Asia after reversing from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0304. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 9,890 contracts to 39,429 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- China: Foreign Direct Investment for March
Today's economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Trade balance for February
- Italy: Trade balance for February
- UK: Rightmove house prices rose 2.9% in March after rising 1.6% in February.
- Switzerland: Producer and import prices for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro fell to a one-month low in the Far East after sliding sharply enough on Friday to reverse the gains made on Wednesday and Thursday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.3010. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3105. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position increased by 21,884 contracts to ‐101,364 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was firm in the Far East after hitting a three-day low on Friday and peaking at a near five-week high on Wednesday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2420. Distant resistance is at 1.2525.
Immediate support is at 1.2320. The next floor is 1.2275. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2246.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position increased by 976 contracts to ‐66,084 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound remained weak in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse the gains of the previous two days. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5803. Further support is at 1.5770 and 1.5650.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5869. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position increased by 9,977 contracts to ‐18,784 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc fell to a one-month low in the Far East after sliding on Friday and is challenging the trendline rising since mid-January. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0838. The next floor is 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1860. The next cap is 1.0905. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0945. Distant resistance is at 1.1020.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 4,757 contracts to ‐9,919 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar is consolidating around the 55-day exponential moving average after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at .9960. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position decreased by 1,520 contracts to 27,967 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar fell in Asia after reversing from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0304. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 9,890 contracts to 39,429 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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