Asia FX
The European and commodity currencies open further down in the Far East after sinking sharply on Friday to reverse Thursday's gains – and even more. They should remain under pressure for at least part of Monday before attempting to recover into Tuesday.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies but yen and Aussie.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro opens at a one-week low in the Far East after reversing on Friday the gains of Wednesday and Thursday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.3010. A pivot low is 1.2987.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3105. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3168. Further resistance is at 1.3240.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position increased by 21,884 contracts to ‐101,364 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens higher in the Far East after hitting a three-day low on Friday and peaking at a near five-week high on Wednesday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2420. Distant resistance is at 1.2525.
Immediate support is at 1.2320. The next floor is 1.2275. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2246.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position increased by 976 contracts to ‐66,084 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound opens lower in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse the gains of the previous two days. The support of the 21-day exponential moving average was penetrated on a closing basis. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5803. Further support is at 1.5770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5870. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position increased by 9,977 contracts to ‐18,784 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc opens a one-week low in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse gains of the previous two days. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0838. The next floor is 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0905. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0948. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 4,757 contracts to ‐9,919 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar opens lower in the Far East after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at .9960. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position decreased by 1,520 contracts to 27,967 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 12 (reversing short since March 2)
The June Australian dollar opens lower in Asia after falling from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0307. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 9,890 contracts to 39,429 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all foreign currencies but yen and Aussie.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- US: The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in March after expanding 0.4% in February. The core CPI increased by 0.2% from 0.1%.
- US: The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 75.7 in April from 76.2 in March.
Today's economic calendar:
- China: Foreign Direct Investment for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro opens at a one-week low in the Far East after reversing on Friday the gains of Wednesday and Thursday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro remains below 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.3010. A pivot low is 1.2987.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3105. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3168. Further resistance is at 1.3240.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position increased by 21,884 contracts to ‐101,364 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens higher in the Far East after hitting a three-day low on Friday and peaking at a near five-week high on Wednesday. The yen is extending its recovery since March 21. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average and below the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had marked a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.2420. Distant resistance is at 1.2525.
Immediate support is at 1.2320. The next floor is 1.2275. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2246.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position increased by 976 contracts to ‐66,084 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound opens lower in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse the gains of the previous two days. The support of the 21-day exponential moving average was penetrated on a closing basis. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short again.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5803. Further support is at 1.5770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5870. Distant resistance is at 1.5980.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position increased by 9,977 contracts to ‐18,784 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc opens a one-week low in the Far East after sliding on Friday to reverse gains of the previous two days. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0838. The next floor is 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0905. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0948. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 4,757 contracts to ‐9,919 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Canadian dollar opens lower in the Far East after falling from a one-week high on Friday. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
Immediate support is at .9960. The next floors are .9933 and .9855.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0035. The next cap is 1.0097. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position decreased by 1,520 contracts to 27,967 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 12 (reversing short since March 2)
The June Australian dollar opens lower in Asia after falling from a ten-day high on Friday. It is testing the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0240. Further support is at 1.0150.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0307. Further resistance is at 1.0380 and 1.0430.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 9,890 contracts to 39,429 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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