Europe FX
The appetite for risk remained firm in the Far East on the wing tails of AAPL's strong earnings. Earnings were good overall, but the market reacted primarily to AAPL's success. The foreign currency futures consolidated after all of the European and commodity currencies ended up. The Asian stock indexes advanced in sync with the US markets. The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro consolidated in the Far East after advancing to a three-week high on Wednesday and held above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday and a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3180. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen consolidated above the 21-day exponential moving average in Asia. The 55-day exponential moving average caps. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2370. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound was quiet in the Far East after racing to a new high for its uptrend. The pound had advanced for eight consecutive days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6239. Further resistance is at 1.6280.
Initial support is at 1.6146. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5996.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc remained firm in the Far East after rising for four days and ending off a three-week high on Wednesday. It is holding above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
Immediate support is at 1.0970. The next floors are 1.0910, 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar remained firm in Asia after advancing for four days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is entering short-term overbought territory. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0168. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0061. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar consolidated in the Far East after climbing up on Wednesday. It is trading around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0170. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Leading index was flat in February after rising 1.1% in January
- Japan: All Industry Activity Index for February
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Consumer confidence / industrial confidence for April
- Germany: Consumer Price Index for April
- Germany: Retail sales for March
- UK: BBA mortgage approvals for March
- UK: Nationwide consumer confidence rose to 53 in March from 44 in February.
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro consolidated in the Far East after advancing to a three-week high on Wednesday and held above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday and a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3180. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen consolidated above the 21-day exponential moving average in Asia. The 55-day exponential moving average caps. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2370. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound was quiet in the Far East after racing to a new high for its uptrend. The pound had advanced for eight consecutive days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6239. Further resistance is at 1.6280.
Initial support is at 1.6146. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5996.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc remained firm in the Far East after rising for four days and ending off a three-week high on Wednesday. It is holding above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
Immediate support is at 1.0970. The next floors are 1.0910, 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar remained firm in Asia after advancing for four days and marking a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is entering short-term overbought territory. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0168. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0061. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar consolidated in the Far East after climbing up on Wednesday. It is trading around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0325. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0170. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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