Asia FX
The appetite for risk was strong again on Wednesday because of AAPL's strong earnings. The US economy continues to expand at a moderate pace despite the temporary impact of higher energy prices, the Federal Reserve announced. There were no major shifts in the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, but they upgraded the longer term outlook. All of of the European and commodity currencies ended up; even the pound, which had been hurt by news that the UK dipped again into recession, reversed to a reach a new high for the uptrend. The US stock indexes advanced. Meanwhile, oil and gold made little progress.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro ended at a three-week high on Wednesday and held above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday and a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3176. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed above the 21-day exponential moving average after falling from a four-day high on Tuesday. The 55-day exponential moving average caps. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2370. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed early losses caused by news that the UK economy dipped again into recession and put in a new high for its uptrend. The pound had advanced for eight consecutive days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6239. Further resistance is at 1.6280.
Initial support is at 1.6146. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5977.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc rose for a fourth day and ended off a three-week high and above the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1093.
Immediate support is at 1.0970. The next floors are 1.0910, 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar advanced for a fourth day and marked a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is entering short-term overbought territory. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0168. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0048. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar ended higher on Wednesday after falling to a two-week low on Tuesday. It is trading around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0326. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0169. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- US: New durable goods orders fell 4.2% in March after increasing 1.9% in February. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders fell by 1.1% in March compared to a 1.9% increase in February.
- US: The Fed left interest rates at 0.25%
Today's economic calendar
- Australia: Leading Index for February
- Japan: All Industry Activity Index for February
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro ended at a three-week high on Wednesday and held above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday and a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3176. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen closed above the 21-day exponential moving average after falling from a four-day high on Tuesday. The 55-day exponential moving average caps. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2370. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound reversed early losses caused by news that the UK economy dipped again into recession and put in a new high for its uptrend. The pound had advanced for eight consecutive days. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6239. Further resistance is at 1.6280.
Initial support is at 1.6146. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.5977.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc rose for a fourth day and ended off a three-week high and above the 100-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1093.
Immediate support is at 1.0970. The next floors are 1.0910, 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar advanced for a fourth day and marked a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is entering short-term overbought territory. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0168. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0048. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar ended higher on Wednesday after falling to a two-week low on Tuesday. It is trading around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0326. Further resistance is at 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0169. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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