Europe FX
The European and commodity currencies consolidated in the Far East after the appetite for risk improved on Tuesday. The pound remains near a new high for the uptrend and the Aussie is recovering after sliding on Tuesday. This AAPL's earnings were strong once again and this suggests a good appetite for risk on Wednesday. The Asian stock indexes advanced.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most of the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June euro is consolidating further around the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Monday. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. The euro had marked a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3173. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3248. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen rested on the 21-day exponential moving average in the Far East after falling from a four-day high on Tuesday. The 55-day exponential moving average capped. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2279. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2369. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound was quiet in the Far East after marking a fresh high for its uptrend on Tuesday. The pound had advanced all last week. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6158. Further resistance is at 1.6210.
Initial support is at 1.6105. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5977.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Swiss franc marked time in Asia after ending above the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1020 and the 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floors are 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Canadian dollar was quiet in the Far East after ending higher on Tuesday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Tuesday. It remains in an inside range for a fifth day. The loonie has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0125. The next cap is 1.0287.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0047. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar consolidated in Asia after falling to a two-week low on Tuesday. It remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0289. Further resistance is at 1.0335 and 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0168. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most of the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Japan: Machine tool orders
Today's economic calendar
- UK: Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter
- UK: Index of Services for February
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey - orders for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June euro is consolidating further around the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Monday. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. The euro had marked a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3173. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3248. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen rested on the 21-day exponential moving average in the Far East after falling from a four-day high on Tuesday. The 55-day exponential moving average capped. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2279. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2369. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound was quiet in the Far East after marking a fresh high for its uptrend on Tuesday. The pound had advanced all last week. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6158. Further resistance is at 1.6210.
Initial support is at 1.6105. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5977.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Swiss franc marked time in Asia after ending above the 21-day exponential moving average on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1020 and the 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floors are 1.0865 and 1.0817.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Canadian dollar was quiet in the Far East after ending higher on Tuesday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Tuesday. It remains in an inside range for a fifth day. The loonie has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0125. The next cap is 1.0287.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0047. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar consolidated in Asia after falling to a two-week low on Tuesday. It remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0289. Further resistance is at 1.0335 and 1.0380.
Initial support is at 1.0220. The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0168. Distant support is at 1.0095.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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