Europe FX
The European and commodity currencies futures remained under pressure in the Far East after the appetite for risk suffered on Monday. They should encounter further weakness for at least part of Tuesday. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes are little changed.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most of the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June euro marked time in the Far East after falling on Monday. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. The euro had marked a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Immediate support is at 1.3095. The next floors are 1.3060 and 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3167 and the 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was quiet in Asia after advancing to a three-day high on Monday and falling to a 10-day low on Friday. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2373. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound marked time in the Far East after making little progress on Monday. It had advanced for a week and marked a new high for its uptrend on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5960.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6146. Further resistance is at 1.6210.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Swiss franc edged lower in the Far East after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday from a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. It is trading just below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floors are 1.0865 and 1.0817.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0992 and the 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1093.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Canadian dollar edged up in Asia after reversing from a four-day low on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Tuesday. It remains in an inside range for a fifth day. The loonie has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0125. The next cap is 1.0287.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0039. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar fell further to a near two-week low in Asia after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0168. Further support is at 1.0095.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0292. Further resistance is at 1.0335 and 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most of the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: The CPI edged up 0.1% in the first quarter from flat in the previous quarter.
- Japan: An index measuring corporate service prices was down 0.3% on year in March, following a contraction of 0.6% in February.
Today's economic calendar
- Eurozone: Industrial new orders for February
- Switzerland: Trade balance for March
- Switzerland: UBS consumption indicator for March
- UK: Public sector net borrowing for March
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June euro marked time in the Far East after falling on Monday. It had reached a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. The euro had marked a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short again.
Immediate support is at 1.3095. The next floors are 1.3060 and 1.3000.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3167 and the 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen was quiet in Asia after advancing to a three-day high on Monday and falling to a 10-day low on Friday. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2373. A pivot high is at 1.2462.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2280. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound marked time in the Far East after making little progress on Monday. It had advanced for a week and marked a new high for its uptrend on Friday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5960.
The high of the uptrend is 1.6146. Further resistance is at 1.6210.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Swiss franc edged lower in the Far East after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday from a 2 1/2-week high on Friday. It is trading just below the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The next floors are 1.0865 and 1.0817.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0992 and the 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1093.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 23
The June Canadian dollar edged up in Asia after reversing from a four-day low on Monday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Canadian dollar had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Tuesday. It remains in an inside range for a fifth day. The loonie has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0125. The next cap is 1.0287.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0039. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar fell further to a near two-week low in Asia after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Monday. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0168. Further support is at 1.0095.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0292. Further resistance is at 1.0335 and 1.0380.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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