US FX
The appetite for risk is on the decline ahead of the US open after improving for nearly two days. Most of the European and the commodity currencies open lower after advancing since Monday. Only the pound is extending gains on inflationary pressure. With nothing new on the horizon, the market remembered Spain's fiscal problems. The Asian stock indexes advanced, but the European bourses are trading lower and the US stock indexes are slightly lower in pre-open markets. Oil, gold and silver are down as well.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro opens lower in the US after ending little unchanged on Tuesday and reversing aggressively from a one-month low on Monday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial support is at 1.3065. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens at a seven-day low in the US, extending Tuesday's losses. The yen had peaked a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average and just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2265. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2383. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound is rising for a third consecutive day and opens up in the US on inflation concerns in the UK. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6056. Further resistance is at 1.6110.
Initial support is at 1.5930.The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5891 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5807.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc opens lower in the US after advancing for nearly two days. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0855. The next floors are 1.0817 and 1.0770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0947. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar opens little changed in the US after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday on a hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar opens slightly lower in the US and around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0288. Further support is at 1.0240.
Initial resistance is at 1.0380. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Australia: Conference Board leading index slowed to 0.2% in February from 0.6% in January.
- Eurozone: The current account unexpectedly logged a seasonally adjusted deficit of EUR 1.3 billion in February from EUR 3.7 billion surplus seen in January.
- Eurozone: Construction output decreased a seasonally adjusted 7.1% on a monthly basis in February, sharply faster than the 0.5% growth seen in January.
- Switzerland: The ZEW-CS economic expectations indicator improved to 2.1 points in April from the previous month's flat reading.
- UK: Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the size of the asset purchase programme at GBP 325 billion through a split vote as one member called for an increase in stimulus, the minutes of the meeting showed.
- UK: The claimant count rate was 4.9% in March, unchanged on the previous month. The unemployment rate during the three months through February was 8.3%, down 0.1% from the three months ended January.
Today's economic calendar:
- Canada: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
EUR – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June euro opens lower in the US after ending little unchanged on Tuesday and reversing aggressively from a one-month low on Monday. It had peaked at a near four-week high in late March. The euro was capped by the 21-week exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is short.
Initial support is at 1.3065. A pivot low is 1.2987. Distant support is at 1.2885.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3164. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen opens at a seven-day low in the US, extending Tuesday's losses. The yen had peaked a 1 ½-month high on Monday. It is trading below the 55-day exponential moving average and just above the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2265. Further support is at 1.2190.
The 55-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2383. Further resistance is at 1.2462.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June pound is rising for a third consecutive day and opens up in the US on inflation concerns in the UK. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound remains within its medium-term rising channel, but is challenging the trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
The top of the uptrend is 1.6056. Further resistance is at 1.6110.
Initial support is at 1.5930.The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5891 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.5807.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Short since April 13
The June Swiss franc opens lower in the US after advancing for nearly two days. It briefly pierced the trendline rising since mid-January on Tuesday. It is trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short again.
Initial support is at 1.0855. The next floors are 1.0817 and 1.0770.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0947. Further resistance is at 1.1020.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June Canadian dollar opens little changed in the US after soaring to a 1 ½-month high on Tuesday on a hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. It has been trading in a slightly declining channel since March 1. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0133. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is at 1.0055. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar opens slightly lower in the US and around the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0288. Further support is at 1.0240.
Initial resistance is at 1.0380. Further resistance is at 1.0430.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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