US FX
The appetite for risk is rising again ahead of the US open after expanding for two days. The markets need new information, as generally strong US earnings have been countered by soft Eurozone data and peripherals' problems. The yields rose again at an Italian long-term bond auction and on Thursday Standard and Poor's rating agency downgraded Spain to BBB+ with outlook negative. Yet, all foreign currencies reversed Asian losses and open up, extending their gains from Thursday. The Asian stock indexes made little progress, the European bourses are mostly up and the US stock indexes are up in pre-open markets. Meanwhile, oil, gold and silver are down.
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro reversed from a three-day low and opens up in the US after climbing for three days and marking a 3 1/2-week high on Thursday. The euro is back above the 21-day exponential moving average after dipping below it in Asia. It had reached a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3187. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen has had an outside day and opens up in the US after advancing to a ten-day high overnight. It is trading around the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.2462. The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2297. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is advancing for a tenth consecutive day and opens at a new high for its uptrend. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6280. Further resistance is at 1.6330.
Initial support is at 1.6170. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6019.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc reversed from a three-day low and opens up in the US after ending off a 3 1/2-week high on Thursday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1046. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0972. The next floors are 1.0910 and 1.0865.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar reversed early losses and opens little changed in the US after advancing for five days and reaching a new high for the uptrend on Thursday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0186. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0069. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar is advancing for a third day and opens at a two-week high in the US. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0410. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0303. Further support is at 1.0220.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- Japan: The Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged. The BoJ decided to add further monetary stimulus to the economy through enhanced purchases of the government bonds, stepping up its efforts to boost economic growth and fight deflation. The central bank's Policy Board unanimously voted to increase the total size of its asset purchase program by JPY 5 trillion with some changes in its composition, which will take the total to JPY 70 trillion by end-2013.
- Japan: Overall and core CPI rose 0.5% in March. On month, core CPI was down 0.1% and overall inflation was flat in April.
- Japan: Average household spending was up 3.4% on year in March following the 2.3% gain in February.
- Japan: The unemployment was unchanged at 4.5% in March.
- Japan: Industrial production rose 1.0% in March following the 1.6% contraction in February.
- Japan: Retail sales fell 1.2% in March after rising 2.0% in February.
- Japan: Housing starts grew at a slower pace of 5 percent in March from a year ago, compared to 7.5 percent in February.
- Eurozone: The leading economic index fell 0.3% in March from 0.8% in February.
- Italy: Retail sales increased 0.6% on a monthly basis in February.
- UK: Poling firm GfK said that consumer confidence came in at -31 in April, unchanged from March.
- Germany: The Gfk consumer confidence survey fell to 5.6 for May from a revised value of 5.8 in April.
- France: Consumer spending fell 2.9% in March, reversing a downwardly revised 2.9% gain in February.
- Switzerland: The KOF Institute's economic barometer rose to 0.40 in April from 0.09 in March.
Today's economic calendar
- US: Gross Domestic product for the first quarter
- US: Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for April
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June euro reversed from a three-day low and opens up in the US after climbing for three days and marking a 3 1/2-week high on Thursday. The euro is back above the 21-day exponential moving average after dipping below it in Asia. It had reached a one-month low last Monday.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro remains in a symmetrical triangle. My model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.3249. Further resistance is at 1.3310.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3187. The next floors are 1.3095 and 1.3000.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen has had an outside day and opens up in the US after advancing to a ten-day high overnight. It is trading around the 55-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a 1 ½-month high last Monday. It is swerving in a channel rising since March 21. The yen had put in a new low for the downtrend in mid-March.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
A pivot high is at 1.2462. The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.2508.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2297. Further support is at 1.2190.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since April 17
The June pound is advancing for a tenth consecutive day and opens at a new high for its uptrend. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average, so it's overbought in the short term. The pound is positioned near the top of its medium-term rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6280. Further resistance is at 1.6330.
Initial support is at 1.6170. The next floor is 1.6056. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6019.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since April 25
The June Swiss franc reversed from a three-day low and opens up in the US after ending off a 3 1/2-week high on Thursday. It has been making a choppy upmove since April 16. It is trading above the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc trades in a symmetrical triangle.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long again.
Initial resistance is at 1.1046. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1092.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0972. The next floors are 1.0910 and 1.0865.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Long since April 24
The June Canadian dollar reversed early losses and opens little changed in the US after advancing for five days and reaching a new high for the uptrend on Thursday. It is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought in the short term. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The high of the uptrend is 1.0186. The next cap is 1.0287.
Immediate support is 1.0095. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0069. The next floor is .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since April 16
The June Australian dollar is advancing for a third day and opens at a two-week high in the US. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie had peaked on the last day of February. The Aussie is trading in a declining channel and its resistance trendline held.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0410. Further resistance is at 1.0500.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0303. Further support is at 1.0220.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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