Europe FX
The foreign currency futures consolidated in the Far East after rising across the board on Friday amid improving appetite for risk. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes marked time as well. The markets had overreacted in the middle of last week to the PMIs slowdown in China and Europe, but now they need new impetus
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long the European currencies and yen, and short the commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June euro was little changed in Asia after hitting a three-week high on Friday. It had ended last week higher and is now challenging the resistance of the 21-week exponential moving average. The euro found a base from the 21-day exponential moving average and is challenging the resistance of the 100-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro fluctuates in a symmetrical triangle and my model is long again.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3300. Distant resistance is at 1.3385.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3205. Further support is at 1.3125 and 1.3070.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position decreased by 16,382 contracts to ‐82,954 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen made little progress in the Far East after consolidating on Friday and recovering in the previous two days. It had marked a new low for the downtrend two weeks ago. Its medium-term decline continues, but the yen is much less oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model went long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2201. This is followed by 1.2290 and 1.2420.
Initial support is at 1.2065. The next floor is 1.2016. The bottom of the downtrend is 1.1889.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position decreased by 16,559 contracts to ‐25,821 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June pound was quiet in Asia after recovering on Friday most of the losses accumulated in the previous three days. It is trading in a triangle and above the 21-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The pound had peaked at the end of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5915. The top of the uptrend is 1.5971.
Initial support is at 1.5825. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5792 and the 55-day exponential moving average at 1.5739.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position decreased by 25,996 contracts to ‐15,852 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June Swiss franc remained firm in Asia after rallying to a three-week high on Friday. It is trading around the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc has found support from the 21-day exponential moving average, at least on a closing basis, all of last week.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.1123.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0955. The next floors are 1.0905 and 1.0840.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 3,607 contracts to ‐11,191 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since March 20 (reversing long since March 8)
The June Canadian dollar was little changed in the Far East after reversing from a four-week low on Friday. The 200-day and 100-day exponential moving averages provided a base. The loonie remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a 2 ½-week high on Monday. The loonie closed below the trendline rising since mid-December.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0030. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at .9942. Further support is at .9900.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position increased by 15,594 contracts to 42,315 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since March 2
The June Australian dollar consolidated below the 55-day exponential moving average in Asia after recovering on Friday from Thursday's losses. The Aussie, which had peaked on the last day of February, is trading in a declining channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0429. The next caps are 1.0465 and 1.0570.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0292. Further support is at 1.0236. Distant support is at 1.0140.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 21,565 contracts to 45,191 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long the European currencies and yen, and short the commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- No data
Today's economic calendar:
- Germany: IFO - business climate/current assessment/expectations for March
- Italy: Consumer confidence index
- UK: Nationwide house prices for February
EUR – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June euro was little changed in Asia after hitting a three-week high on Friday. It had ended last week higher and is now challenging the resistance of the 21-week exponential moving average. The euro found a base from the 21-day exponential moving average and is challenging the resistance of the 100-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways while the euro fluctuates in a symmetrical triangle and my model is long again.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3300. Distant resistance is at 1.3385.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3205. Further support is at 1.3125 and 1.3070.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short EUR position decreased by 16,382 contracts to ‐82,954 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
Luca Model: Long since March 21
The June Japanese yen made little progress in the Far East after consolidating on Friday and recovering in the previous two days. It had marked a new low for the downtrend two weeks ago. Its medium-term decline continues, but the yen is much less oversold.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but my model went long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.2201. This is followed by 1.2290 and 1.2420.
Initial support is at 1.2065. The next floor is 1.2016. The bottom of the downtrend is 1.1889.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short JPY position decreased by 16,559 contracts to ‐25,821 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June pound was quiet in Asia after recovering on Friday most of the losses accumulated in the previous three days. It is trading in a triangle and above the 21-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The pound had peaked at the end of February.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long again.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5915. The top of the uptrend is 1.5971.
Initial support is at 1.5825. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5792 and the 55-day exponential moving average at 1.5739.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short GBP position decreased by 25,996 contracts to ‐15,852 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
Luca Model: Long since March 23
The June Swiss franc remained firm in Asia after rallying to a three-week high on Friday. It is trading around the 100-day exponential moving average. The franc has found support from the 21-day exponential moving average, at least on a closing basis, all of last week.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1055. The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.1123.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0955. The next floors are 1.0905 and 1.0840.
Net non‐commercial positions: The short CHF position decreased by 3,607 contracts to ‐11,191 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
Luca Model: Short since March 20 (reversing long since March 8)
The June Canadian dollar was little changed in the Far East after reversing from a four-week low on Friday. The 200-day and 100-day exponential moving averages provided a base. The loonie remains below the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a 2 ½-week high on Monday. The loonie closed below the trendline rising since mid-December.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0030. The top of the uptrend is 1.0133.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at .9942. Further support is at .9900.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long CAD position increased by 15,594 contracts to 42,315 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
AUD – June
Luca Model: Short since March 2
The June Australian dollar consolidated below the 55-day exponential moving average in Asia after recovering on Friday from Thursday's losses. The Aussie, which had peaked on the last day of February, is trading in a declining channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0429. The next caps are 1.0465 and 1.0570.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0292. Further support is at 1.0236. Distant support is at 1.0140.
Net non‐commercial positions: The long AUD position decreased by 21,565 contracts to 45,191 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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