Feedback
Asia FX
The appetite for risk was limited by concern regarding the health of the world economy. Most of the foreign currency futures ended under pressure, with only euro and franc holding their own. The US stock indexes fell. Meanwhile, oil slipped and gold advanced.
The short-term outlook for most of the major currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long euro and franc, and short yen, pound and commodity currencies.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17
The March euro eked out a small gain in an inside range on Wednesday after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3141. Distant support is at 1.3055.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3325. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a seven-month low on Wednesday. It is testing the bottom of the channel declining since October 31. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455. Further support is at 1.2353.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2519. The next caps are 1.2610 and 1.2675.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish
GBP – March
Luca Model: Short since February 21
The March pound fell further on Wednesday under the pressure of the dovish BoE comments and hit a one-week low. It is threatening to form a double-top pattern. The pound had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13. The pound closed below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.5625. Further support is at 1.5560.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5720. Further resistance is at 1.5765. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc edged up on Wednesday after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The next cap is 1.1065. The 200-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.1123.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0879.
Distant support is at 1.0735.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 21
The March Canadian dollar fell further on Wednesday after reversing from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The 21-day exponential moving average provided support. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14
The March Australian dollar hit a three-week low and is tested the support of the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0660. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for most of the major currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long euro and franc, and short yen, pound and commodity currencies.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- US: Existing home sales rose 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.38 million unit rate in December. The national median existing-home price fell 4.6% to $154,700 in January from $162,200 in December.
Today's economic calendar:
- No data
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17
The March euro eked out a small gain in an inside range on Wednesday after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3141. Distant support is at 1.3055.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3325. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a seven-month low on Wednesday. It is testing the bottom of the channel declining since October 31. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455. Further support is at 1.2353.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2519. The next caps are 1.2610 and 1.2675.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish
GBP – March
Luca Model: Short since February 21
The March pound fell further on Wednesday under the pressure of the dovish BoE comments and hit a one-week low. It is threatening to form a double-top pattern. The pound had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13. The pound closed below the 21-day exponential moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model is short.
Initial support is at 1.5625. Further support is at 1.5560.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.5720. Further resistance is at 1.5765. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc edged up on Wednesday after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The next cap is 1.1065. The 200-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.1123.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0879.
Distant support is at 1.0735.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 21
The March Canadian dollar fell further on Wednesday after reversing from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The 21-day exponential moving average provided support. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14
The March Australian dollar hit a three-week low and is tested the support of the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0660. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
