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Europe FX
All of the foreign currency futures declined further in the Far East after closing either off their best levels or lower on Tuesday on news that Eurozone finance ministers finally struck a deal for a second bailout program for Greece. The news didn't impress because the odds that Greece will fully adhere to its promises are very low. Consequently, the Greek problems will perpetuate long after the EU, ECB and IMF let this peripheral European economy off the hook.
The Asian stock indexes are a little lower. The short-term outlook for all the major currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro slipped in the Far East after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday after the deal given to Greece early on Tuesday failed to inflate demand for too long. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3137. Distant support is at 1.3045.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3313. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a six-month low in Asia. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Good support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound encountered further weakness in the Far East after falling on Tuesday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5730. Further support is at 1.5640.
Initial resistance is at 1.5820. The next cap is 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc slipped in Asia after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0875. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1123.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar declined further in the Far East after falling from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9982 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar is testing the support of the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Tuesday. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The Asian stock indexes are a little lower. The short-term outlook for all the major currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- China: The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in February from 48.8 in January.
- Australia: Wage Price Index increased 1.0% in the fourth quarter.
- Australia: The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for Australia increased 0.2% in December.
Today's economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Purchasing Manager Index services for February
- Eurozone: Industrial new orders for December
- UK: Bank of England Minutes
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro slipped in the Far East after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday after the deal given to Greece early on Tuesday failed to inflate demand for too long. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3137. Distant support is at 1.3045.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3313. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a six-month low in Asia. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Good support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound encountered further weakness in the Far East after falling on Tuesday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5730. Further support is at 1.5640.
Initial resistance is at 1.5820. The next cap is 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc slipped in Asia after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0875. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1123.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar declined further in the Far East after falling from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9982 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar is testing the support of the 21-day exponential moving average after falling on Tuesday. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
