Feedback
Europe FX
The euro and franc surged in the Far East Eurozone finance ministers struck a deal early for a second bailout program for Greece which includes new financing of 130 billion euros and aims to cut Greece's debt to 121% of GDP by 2020. The other major foreign currencies consolidated. As I have repeatedly warned you, no local government will be able to alter the Greek business culture, the appetite for undemanding, secure and benefit-rich government jobs, or properly collect taxes. Therefore, the Greek problems will perpetuate long after the EU, ECB and IMF let this peripheral European economy off the hook.
The short-term outlook for all the major currencies except the high-flying euro and franc is sideways. It remains to be seen if the euro and franc can sustain these short-term gains, given the behavioral patterns in Greece. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro rallied in the Far East on the deal cut for Greece after bottoming near a three-week low on Thursday. The euro is challenging the 200-day exponential moving average and only a close above this level would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish, assuming the news about the Greece has any staying power. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long short.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3316. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3131. Distant support is at 1.3045.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short EUR position increased by 8,048 contracts to ‐148,641 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen remained weak is Asia after falling since February 3 and hitting a six-month low on Monday. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2519. The next level is 1.2440.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long JPY position decreased by ‐25,712 contracts to 29,459 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound was active, if not decisive, in the Far East after rallying since Thursday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924. Further resistance is at 1.5975.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5790 and the 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5731.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short GBP position increased by ‐7,477 contracts to ‐40,599 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc rallied to 2 ½-month high in Asia, moving in tandem with the euro. It is trading around the 100-exponential moving average caps on. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1125.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0870. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short CHF position increased by ‐6,068 contracts to ‐15,863 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar consolidated after hitting a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Further resistance is at 1.0170.
Immediate support is at 1.0010. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9981 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long CAD position increased by 7,382 contracts to 9,566 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar fell in Asia after failing to match the top of February 8. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now challenging the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0599. Further support is at 1.0555.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0830.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long AUD position decreased by ‐1,354 contracts to 73,741 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways to slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The short-term outlook for all the major currencies except the high-flying euro and franc is sideways. It remains to be seen if the euro and franc can sustain these short-term gains, given the behavioral patterns in Greece. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- Australia: In the Minutes of the February 7th monetary policy meeting in which the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%, the Board noted that growth is expected to be close to trend and inflation consistent with the target, "and the outlook was for GDP growth to be close to trend over the next couple of years."
Today's economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Purchasing Manager Index services for February
- UK: Bank of England Minutes
- Eurozone: Industrial new orders for December
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro rallied in the Far East on the deal cut for Greece after bottoming near a three-week low on Thursday. The euro is challenging the 200-day exponential moving average and only a close above this level would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish, assuming the news about the Greece has any staying power. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long short.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3316. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3131. Distant support is at 1.3045.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short EUR position increased by 8,048 contracts to ‐148,641 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen remained weak is Asia after falling since February 3 and hitting a six-month low on Monday. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2519. The next level is 1.2440.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long JPY position decreased by ‐25,712 contracts to 29,459 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound was active, if not decisive, in the Far East after rallying since Thursday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924. Further resistance is at 1.5975.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5790 and the 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5731.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short GBP position increased by ‐7,477 contracts to ‐40,599 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc rallied to 2 ½-month high in Asia, moving in tandem with the euro. It is trading around the 100-exponential moving average caps on. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1125.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0870. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short CHF position increased by ‐6,068 contracts to ‐15,863 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar consolidated after hitting a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Further resistance is at 1.0170.
Immediate support is at 1.0010. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9981 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long CAD position increased by 7,382 contracts to 9,566 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar fell in Asia after failing to match the top of February 8. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now challenging the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0599. Further support is at 1.0555.
The top of the uptrend is 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0830.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long AUD position decreased by ‐1,354 contracts to 73,741 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways to slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
