Feedback
US FX
The appetite for risk is limited ahead of the US open amid general unease regarding the state of the world economy. China is witnessing mild malaise, thus pressuring the Aussie, the Eurozone showed a softening PMI, the yen hit a seven-month low against the dollar after recent monetary easing from the Bank of Japan, and the pound was hit by dovish BoE members. To these factors, one must add the twist of widespread distrust that Greece will fully adhere to its promises after securing a second bailout program on Tuesday. On this background, the downside risk is increasing.
Most Asian stock indexes closed higher, the European bourses are trading lower and the US stock indexes are down in pre-open markets. Meanwhile, oil, gold and silver are also down.
The short-term outlook for most of the major currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen, pound and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro opens slightly lower in the US after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday in the wake of the debt deal given to Greece. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3139. Distant support is at 1.3045.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3314. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a seven-month low. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455. Further support is at 1.2350.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2519. The next caps are 1.2595 and 1.2695.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish
GBP – March
Luca Model: Short since February 22
The March pound opens further down in the US under the pressure of the dovish BoE comments after falling on Tuesday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13. The pound nicked both the 21-day exponential moving average and the trendline rising since January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model went short.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5677. Further support is at 1.5640.
Initial resistance is at 1.5790. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc opens little changed in the US after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0876. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1123.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar opens further down in the US after falling from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9982 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar opens at a three-week low and is testing the support of the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
Most Asian stock indexes closed higher, the European bourses are trading lower and the US stock indexes are down in pre-open markets. Meanwhile, oil, gold and silver are also down.
The short-term outlook for most of the major currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen, pound and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- China: The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in February from 48.8 in January.
- Australia: Wage Price Index increased 1.0% in the fourth quarter.
- Australia: The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for Australia increased 0.2% in December.
- Eurozone: The composite PMI fell to 49.7 in February from 50.4 in January.
- Eurozone: Industrial new orders rose 1.9% in December after decreasing 1.1% in November.
- UK: The Bank of England lifted its asset purchase programme by GBP 50 billion in February through a split vote as two members called for larger stimulus, the minutes of the monetary policy meeting showed.
Today's economic calendar:
- US: Existing home sales for January
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro opens slightly lower in the US after ending off a 12-day high on Tuesday in the wake of the debt deal given to Greece. The euro failed to break above the 100-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3139. Distant support is at 1.3045.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3314. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen has been falling since February 3 and hit a seven-month low. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
Initial support is between 1.2440 and 1.2455. Further support is at 1.2350.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2519. The next caps are 1.2595 and 1.2695.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish
GBP – March
Luca Model: Short since February 22
The March pound opens further down in the US under the pressure of the dovish BoE comments after falling on Tuesday. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13. The pound nicked both the 21-day exponential moving average and the trendline rising since January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but my model went short.
The 55-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5677. Further support is at 1.5640.
Initial resistance is at 1.5790. The top of the upmove is 1.5924.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc opens little changed in the US after ending off a 2 ½-month high on Tuesday. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0876. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1123.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar opens further down in the US after falling from a new high for the uptrend early this week. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9982 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Distant resistance is at 1.0170.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar opens at a three-week low and is testing the support of the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555 and 1.0470.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
