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The foreign currency futures open off their best levels or lower in the US after Eurozone finance ministers finally struck a deal for a second bailout program for Greece which includes new financing of 130 billion euros and aims to cut Greece's debt to 121% of GDP by 2020. Even the euro and franc failed to hold on to their initial obligatory gains because traders understand well that local governments will not be able to alter the Greek business culture, the appetite for undemanding, secure and benefit-rich government jobs, or properly collect taxes. Therefore, the Greek problems will perpetuate long after the EU, ECB and IMF let this peripheral European economy off the hook.
The European bourses are trading higher and the US stock indexes are up in pre-open markets. Meanwhile, oil, gold and silver are up as well.
The short-term outlook for all the major currencies is sideways. It remains to be seen if the euro and franc can sustain these short-term gains, given the behavioral patterns in Greece. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
Today's economic calendar:
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro opens off a 12-day high in the US after the deal given to Greece early on Tuesday failed to inflate demand for too long. The euro failed to break above the 200-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways because the news about the Greece didn't have any staying power. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3315. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3128. Distant support is at 1.3045.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short EUR position increased by 8,048 contracts to ‐148,641 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen opens weakly is the US after falling since February 3 and hitting a six-month low. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2519. The next level is 1.2440.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long JPY position decreased by ‐25,712 contracts to 29,459 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound opens lower in the US after rallying since Thursday and peaking in Asia. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5790 and the 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5729.
Initial resistance is at 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924. Further resistance is at 1.5975.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short GBP position increased by ‐7,477 contracts to ‐40,599 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc opens off a 2 ½-month high in the US, moving in tandem with the euro. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0867. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1124.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short CHF position increased by ‐6,068 contracts to ‐15,863 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar opens little changed in the US after hitting a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0010. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Further resistance is at 1.0170.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long CAD position increased by 7,382 contracts to 9,566 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar opens lower in the US after failing overnight to match the top of February 8. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long AUD position decreased by ‐1,354 contracts to 73,741 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
The European bourses are trading higher and the US stock indexes are up in pre-open markets. Meanwhile, oil, gold and silver are up as well.
The short-term outlook for all the major currencies is sideways. It remains to be seen if the euro and franc can sustain these short-term gains, given the behavioral patterns in Greece. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long most the European and commodity currencies, and short yen and Aussie.
Look for updates on my model's positions on Twitter: They are free, but with considerable delay. Once offered, you will have to pay subscription to get the model turns in advance.
Good luck!
Cornelius
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight:
- Australia: In the Minutes of the February 7th monetary policy meeting in which the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%, the Board noted that growth is expected to be close to trend and inflation consistent with the target, "and the outlook was for GDP growth to be close to trend over the next couple of years."
- Japan: All Industry Activity Index rose 1.3% in December after falling 1.0% in November.
- Switzerland: Trade balance showed a surplus of 1.553 billion francs in January, lower than 2.006 billion francs.
- UK: The public sector net borrowing excluding interventions was -GBP 7.8 billion in January, which was GBP 2.5 billion lower net borrowing than in January 2011.
Today's economic calendar:
- US: Existing home sales for January
EUR – March
Luca Model: Long since February 17 (reversing short since February 14)
The March euro opens off a 12-day high in the US after the deal given to Greece early on Tuesday failed to inflate demand for too long. The euro failed to break above the 200-day exponential moving average and only a close above this line would sanction sustained strength.
The short-term outlook is sideways because the news about the Greece didn't have any staying power. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3315. Further resistance is at 1.3405.
Initial support is at 1.3200. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3128. Distant support is at 1.3045.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short EUR position increased by 8,048 contracts to ‐148,641 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
Luca Model: Short since February 7
The oversold March Japanese yen opens weakly is the US after falling since February 3 and hitting a six-month low. The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.2519. The next level is 1.2440.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2595. The next caps are 1.2695 and 1.2780.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long JPY position decreased by ‐25,712 contracts to 29,459 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish (oversold)
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 14)
The March pound opens lower in the US after rallying since Thursday and peaking in Asia. It had peaked at a near three-month high in early February and branded a new low for the downtrend on January 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5790 and the 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5729.
Initial resistance is at 1.5895. The top of the upmove is 1.5924. Further resistance is at 1.5975.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short GBP position increased by ‐7,477 contracts to ‐40,599 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF – March
Luca Model: Long since February 20
The March Swiss franc opens off a 2 ½-month high in the US, moving in tandem with the euro. It is trading below the 100-exponential moving average, which capped imperfectly in Asia. The franc had marked a new low for the downtrend on January 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0910. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0867. Distant support is at 1.0735.
Initial resistance is at 1.1023. The 200-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.1124.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The short CHF position increased by ‐6,068 contracts to ‐15,863 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 16 (reversing short since February 10)
The March Canadian dollar opens little changed in the US after hitting a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The loonie has been trading in a choppy uptrend since Thanksgiving.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0010. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9980 and the 200-day exponential moving average at .9927.
A pivot high resists at 1.0090. Further resistance is at 1.0170.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long CAD position increased by 7,382 contracts to 9,566 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
Luca Model: Short since February 14 (reversing long since December 20)
The March Australian dollar opens lower in the US after failing overnight to match the top of February 8. The Aussie has been well entrenched in the uptrend since Thanksgiving, but is now trading below the rising trendline.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0596. Further support is at 1.0555.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0680. The top of the uptrend is 1.0795.
Net Non‐Commercial Positions: The long AUD position decreased by ‐1,354 contracts to 73,741 contracts.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
