Fri 08 Mar 2013 16:37:00 CT
Compiled 06/20/12 6:00 AM (CT)
Statistics: London Gold Fix $1,618.75 -$9.75 LME Copper Stocks 250,350 tons -1,325 tons
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) With a slight slide in gold prices overnight, it would appear that traders were at least partially discouraged the overnight events. While the BOE in their last meeting voted to leave QE in place, some wanted to see the level of QE increased. Apparently 3 MPC members wanted more easing to be put in place in the UK right now and therefore some central bankers aren't yet at the panic stage yet with respect to the latest EU debt crisis events. Even more discouraging to the gold bulls, is the lower initial price action in gold today despite favorable currency market action and generally favorable Asian gold demand press coverage. Talk of relatively strong Chinese gold demand in the 1st quarter, should have been a pleasant surprise, when one considers the slow down unfolding in the world's second largest economy. The bear camp in gold could suggest that sagging Indian gold demand has basically offset Chinese gold demand and that in turn leaves overall Asian gold demand as a neutral to slightly negative influence. In fact, a lagging monsoon season in Indian has some players fretting over ongoing Indian gold demand weakness. With a thin US report slate leading up to the FOMC statement and decision later today and August gold to this morning's high, up roughly $67 an ounce and a large portion of that rally possibly forged on the back of US easing hopes, one might suggest that a portion of an extension of QE has already been factored into gold prices. At this point, the trade seems to have anticipated a minimum extension of operation twist of $200 billion and since few expect the Fed to engage other types of easing right now, the eyes will be on the size of the twist allotment. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.071 million ounces up 10,523 ounces.
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: (6:00 AM CST) Stocks were mixed in China with Hong Kong stocks forging minor gains and the Shanghai Composite falling slightly on the lowest volume in 4 1/2 months. European equities were also weaker this morning, with hope of additional easing from the US later today serving to provide some form of cushion for prices. The European markets might have seen some support from rather dovish talk from the BOE MPC, which voted 5 to 4 to leave stimulus in place but unchanged and ultimately that seems to more of an on-hold stance than a fresh easing stance. With some MPC officials indicating they wanted to see how events in the Euro zone play out, it is possible that the US Fed could be in a similar position. At a minimum, the markets might need to see operation twist in excess of $200 billion, just to avoid disappointment in the wake of the FOMC statement and press conference later today.
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